Plunge by 10% Followed by Rebound, Weekend Oil Market Watch

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday triggered a widespread risk-on sentiment in the market: US stocks surged, oil prices plummeted, US bond yields declined. The market believed that the worst-case scenario was behind us, and the global energy supply disruption had eased.

However, these actions may prove to be premature.

At 9:20 AM on the 18th (Saturday), the calm was first broken by reports of two oil tankers being denied passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump promptly applied public pressure: if no agreement was reached by Wednesday, the US would continue to block Iranian ports. At 4:00 PM that day, Iran announced a reinstatement of restrictions in the strait and opened fire on vessels attempting to pass—two Indian ships turned back to the Persian Gulf after being fired upon, nearly halting strait shipping.

Traders quickly reacted on TradeXYZ, with the crude oil contract up around 4.52% from the weekend's closing price, and the S&P index contract down nearly 0.8%.

Trump then changed his stance, revealing that envoy Steve Witkoff would travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with the Iranian side, extending the negotiation window to Wednesday.

Turning back, Trump posted on Truth Social, stating, "The deal we offered is very fair and reasonable. I hope they accept it because if they don't, the United States will destroy every power plant and bridge in Iran."

Iran was clearly not buying it. At 1:53 AM on the 20th, Iran announced its refusal to participate in the second round of talks; according to Axios, Tehran's assessment is that the US may launch an attack before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday night.

Impacted by this news, oil prices surged again, clearing the high point of the 18th, with the corresponding drop in the S&P index below the low point of the 18th.

On the individual stock front, three crypto stocks significantly lagged behind other stocks.

It is foreseeable that the upbeat sentiment spread in the market last week will be penalized. This week's market trend will largely depend on whether Iran can maintain its non-negotiating stance.