Will Another Shooting Incident Help Trump Reverse Course in the Midterm Elections?

This was a typical yet chilling night at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.

Approximately 2,600 people attended, with Vice President Vance, FBI Director Patel, and key Cabinet officials all present. Trump himself sat at the head table, with magician Oz Pearlman as the entertainment. In fact, this was Trump's first time attending this annual gala as the sitting president. He had refused to attend throughout his entire first term, given his frosty relationship with the media.

Secret Service Shields Trump

Gunfire erupted just minutes before the start of the banquet while the Trumps had just taken their seats at the head table. The gunshots came from the direction of the security checkpoint. The 31-year-old Allen had checked in the day before as a guest, sneaking in a disassembled shotgun into the room unnoticed. After a night of preparation, he rushed through the metal detector, armed with a shotgun, a handgun, and several knives.

CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer was standing just a few feet away from the gunman at the time. He recounted witnessing the gunman firing at least six shots with what he described as "a very deadly weapon." One agent was hit, but his bulletproof vest saved his life. Allen was then subdued and taken into custody.

Attacker Had Donated to Harris

According to Western media investigations into the attacker Allen, from his education background, the 31-year-old was a typical California elite tech guy.

With an admission rate of only 2.3% to 3.8%, the California Institute of Technology enrolls only 220 to 250 students each year, with an average SAT score between 1530 and 1580. Allen graduated with a bachelor's degree in Mechanical Engineering from there in 2017 and obtained a Master's in Computer Science from California State University, Dominguez Hills in 2025. A computer science professor who taught him said to the AP that Allen always sat in the front row of the classroom, frequently asked coursework questions via email, was polite, and a good person.

Attacker Allen

After graduation, Allen worked as a part-time teacher at a tutoring center called C2 Education. In December 2024, he was recognized as the "Teacher of the Month" for tutoring students for their college entrance examinations. He also developed indie games and sold them on the Steam platform for $1.99.

This is someone who would be really a blank face to outsiders. A 17-year-old high school student who had once been tutored by him told NPR: "He's just a bit of a nerd. Smart guy."

The complexity and multifaceted nature of a person are reflected in Allen.

In recent years, Allen has gradually become involved in left-wing activism in Los Angeles, while also acquiring firearms and regularly going to the shooting range for practice. His social media is filled with anti-Trump and anti-Christian content. He has participated in California's "No Kings" protests and joined a social justice organization called "The Wide Awakes," a name derived from a 1860s youth abolitionist movement dedicated to electing Lincoln.

Protest Against Trump's "No Kings"

In October 2024, he donated $25 to the Democratic Party fundraising platform ActBlue, specifying it for the Harris presidential campaign. However, voter registration records show that he is registered to vote in Los Angeles County as having "No Party Preference."

This background is not hard to understand. The educational environment of the California Elite Institute of Technology, the deep blue political ecosystem in California, and the political climate of Trump's second term reflected in the "No Kings" protests have jointly shaped the soil of his ideological radicalization.

His sister told investigators that Allen has always been known for making radical statements, constantly talking about doing "something" to fix the problems in the world. In recent years, he has regularly gone to the shooting range for training, keeping firearms hidden at his parents' house without their knowledge.

About ten minutes before the attack, he sent a farewell-like document to his family via text message. The content obtained by CNN shows that he apologized to "parents, colleagues, students, bystanders," stating that his targets for the attack were "executive branch officials, from the highest to the lowest, in order of priority."

How Will This Shooting Affect the Midterm Elections?

This is at least the third attack targeting Trump in two years.

The summer of 2024 saw one of the most dramatic arcs in the Trump political narrative. At the Bartlet rally, the stabbed Trump held his fist up high, blood coming out of his ear, with the American flag in the background, becoming one of the most compelling political images in recent years, believed to have directly boosted his subsequent electoral prospects.

But today's political environment is drastically different from that of 2024. With the midterms about six months away, Trump's approval rating has fallen to the 30% mark. In multiple polls by Reuters, AP, and others, Trump has received low scores for his handling of the economy, immigration, and the Iran war. Political scientist Nolan Higdon directly pointed out that the shooting "is unlikely to reverse the president's declining approval rating" because the criticism mainly stems from things that Trump currently cannot quickly change: the Iran situation and economic pressure, which will continue to exist until the midterms.

Nevertheless, this event still provides Trump with significant political capital.

Trump himself accepted this "honor" in his usual manner. He said he views being the target of multiple assassination attempts as a testament to his historical significance and expressed his determination not to let danger alter his public schedule. At a press conference, he said, "When you look at the people who have been the subject of assassination attempts—whether successful or not—they are big figures. Just look at those names. I have to say, I consider it an honor."

He turned the threat into a legendary narrative and transformed his escape into a divine blessing.

However, this time the Trump administration did not choose to direct the fire towards the Democratic Party. This is intriguing. After all, following the 2024 assassination attempt, the Trump camp's first reaction was to point the finger at Democratic Party "incendiary rhetoric" and blame the opponent for the climate of hate. Yet, this time, faced with a shooter who had donated to Harris and participated in "No Kings" protests, he chose the "lone wolf" framework.

The reason for this is not hard to deduce: The attacker Allen's political affiliation is complex enough, but the evidence chain is fragile enough that merely $25 in Democratic donations and being registered as independent cannot withstand a true partisan battle.

Therefore, the Trump administration steered this shooting towards the policy level, focusing on two things Trump has always been concerned about: constructing the White House banquet hall and approving the budget for the still-closed Department of Homeland Security.

Trump's Calculations, the Chessboard After the Gunshot

The day after the shooting, Trump posted on Truth Social: "This would have never happened in the military-grade top-secret banquet hall being built at the White House. It's not being built fast enough."

Trump believes that the reason this attack occurred at the Hilton hotel and not the White House itself is partly because the White House Correspondents' Dinner has always been held at the Hilton, and Reagan's assassination attempt in 1981 also took place at the Hilton in Washington.

1981 Reagan Assassination Scene

In July 2025, Trump announced plans to build a 90,000-square-foot "White House State Ballroom" on the original site of the White House East Wing, accommodating 999 people. The cost escalated from an initial $200 million to $400 million.

White House Banquet Hall Construction

This $400 million project initially faced challenges due to "excessive funding" and "damage to historical artifacts." However, overnight, the situation turned around. Brett Shumate, Assistant Deputy in the Justice Department's Civil Division, directly wrote to the American National Trust for Historic Preservation, demanding the withdrawal of the lawsuit blocking the construction by Monday morning, stating unequivocally: "Your lawsuit puts the lives of the President, his family, and staff at serious risk... I hope yesterday's almost successful event will finally make you realize the absurdity of this lawsuit."

Senator Lindsey Graham announced plans to introduce a bill authorizing and funding the banquet hall, stating, "Some thought this was a vanity project. I no longer think so. I just spoke with the President, and his first words were, 'We must build that banquet hall, not for me, but for future Presidents.'" Senator Tim Sheehy and Congresswoman Lauren Boebert also announced efforts to advance similar legislation. Even Democratic Senator Fetterman wrote on X that it is time to "put aside TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome) and start construction on the White House Banquet Hall."

This is exactly what Trump had hoped for. Another one of Trump's "pet projects" is falling into place with the Department of Homeland Security's budget.

Many are unaware that the U.S. government is currently in a partial shutdown, with the Department of Homeland Security experiencing a funding lapse since February 14, now lasting 73 days.

Currently, according to the Polymarket market "How long will the Department of Homeland Security shutdown last?" there is a high likelihood that the Department of Homeland Security will remain shut down for at least another 20 days.

The background of the Department of Homeland Security shutdown is as follows: In January of this year, immigration enforcement officers fatally shot two U.S. citizens during an enforcement operation. The Democrats then refused to provide regular funding for the Department of Homeland Security to pressure for limitations on immigration enforcement powers, leading to the department being closed for nearly two months, leaving agents in prolonged unpaid status.

During a press conference after the shooting, Trump specifically pointed out this detail: "These are tough, reliable people, and they should get paid. You know, they are not getting paid right now. It's the Democrats who have delayed their salaries." Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters was more direct, characterizing the shooting as "the inevitable result of the radical left normalizing political violence" and accusing the Democrats of "repeatedly obstructing Department of Homeland Security funding, hindering the law enforcement agencies entrusted with protecting the American people from receiving funding."

Trump is no longer a challenger for 2024, but rather the incumbent with executive resources at his disposal, so his current strategy is entirely different from what it would have been in 2024.

The attacker, Allen, will appear in federal court on Monday, facing charges of using a firearm to commit violent crimes and assaulting federal officers. Prosecutor Pirro stated that additional charges may be added as the investigation progresses. As expected, Acting Attorney General Blanche said Allen is being very uncooperative with the investigation. It seems like the political aftershocks of this case will continue.