Viewpoint: Bitcoin Not Out of the Woods Yet? $55,000 to Be the Next Key Reistance

TL;DR
· 10x Research stated that Bitcoin is following its A-B-C path from the $82,000 rebound high towards the $50,000 cycle low.
· This path includes a $63,000 A wave low, an $82,000 B wave rebound, and the potential ongoing C wave decline.
· Spot price is still around $60,000, with $55,000 and $50,000 yet to be reached, specific catalysts and buy signals are still undisclosed.

In its latest article on July 1st, 10x Research claimed that Bitcoin is progressing towards its $50,000 cycle low along its Elliott Wave path, with the spot price having returned to around $60,000. For traders, this is not a "confirmed bottom" signal but a more realistic question: if the previous rebound from $63,000 to $82,000 was just a bear market relief rally, will the upcoming $55,000 be a true test of support, potentially pushing the price towards $50,000?

This crypto research firm has previously used cycle and technical analysis to determine Bitcoin's turning points. The core of the latest article is not complicated: it believes that the bear market path since last year is unfolding in an A-B-C corrective structure, with the A wave dropping to around $63,000, the B wave rebounding to around $82,000, and currently entering the C wave decline, with the final target still pointing to the $50,000 cycle low.

As of July 2nd, Bitcoin's spot price is still fluctuating around $60,000, briefly dipping above $58,000 during the day. This means that the "approaching $55,000" described by 10x Research has not yet fully occurred, and $50,000 is far from being realized. The true trading focus in the market now is whether this path will continue to unfold or if stabilization will occur around $60,000.

$63,000, $82,000, $50,000 – 10x Splits Bear Market into Three Segments

The path reiterated by 10x Research this time comes from its previous reports.

In October 2025, the institution began hinting that Bitcoin might enter a bear market phase; by December 19 of the same year, in a report titled "Trading the Reset: Bitcoin's Path Through the Cycle Low," it had predicted Bitcoin's potential drop to around $65,888 and anchored the potential low point during the 2026 World Cup period; by February 5, 2026, the target was further revised downwards to around $50,000, along with a more specific Elliott Wave count.

The so-called Elliott Wave is a technical analysis framework that believes prices will cycle between impulsive waves and corrective waves. In this particular analysis, 10x Research interprets Bitcoin's post-all-time-high price action as an A-B-C three-wave correction: first dropping to around $63,000, then rebounding to $82,000, and then entering the next leg of decline.

The reason this path has attracted attention is because the first two legs of the price movement have largely played out. Bitcoin indeed previously formed a local low around $63,000, then rebounded to near $82,000, before dropping back to the current range of around $60,000. Therefore, 10x Research believes that the market is entering the validation phase of the "last few steps" of the bear market.

However, the key point here is that wave counting is not a deterministic model. Different analysts may assign different wave labels to the same price movement. The concept of "path realization" is more of an explanation from a technical analysis perspective rather than a commitment to the price inevitably dropping to a certain level.

$55,000 as the Next Key Support Test

Currently, the most immediate price level to watch is $55,000.

If Bitcoin continues to fall from around $60,000, $55,000 will be the first key level to determine whether Wave C is truly unfolding. Breaking below this level would bring 10x Research's $50,000 target closer; if the price stabilizes above $55,000, then this path may need to be recalibrated.

This is also where the trading implications of this article lie. For hodlers, the question is not whether to believe in a particular technical theory, but whether the current pullback is still part of the tail end of the bear market. For funds waiting to enter the market, the question is whether around $50,000 will present the next low-buying opportunity before the next structural uptrend.

In its public content, 10x Research mentions that the remaining focus includes: identifying the catalyst for the low, whether the final low needs fine-tuning, and when to start buying for the next uptrend. However, these answers are behind a paywall, and the public portion does not provide explicit trigger conditions.

Therefore, the only confirmed aspect at this point is that the institution has reiterated a path: from $63,000 to $82,000, then down to $50,000. One cannot extrapolate from this that the bottom is about to form or that a buying opportunity signal has been given.

What Differs from 2022 is the Market's Earlier Weakness

10x Research also compared the current market to the 2022 bear market.

In the first half of 2022, Bitcoin was still fluctuating near a high price, and at that time, the cryptocurrency industry sentiment did not quickly turn cold. The article mentioned that after the FTX-related conference, the market remained optimistic, and the related events could attract many participants. Subsequently, Bitcoin experienced a deeper decline and eventually formed a low point around November of that year.

The difference this time is that the market fatigue appeared earlier. Bitcoin has significantly retraced from its previous high, the rebound has failed to reopen the upward space, and the price has returned to around $60,000. For 10x Research, this trend is more like the exhaustion of the late bear market rather than the restart of a new uptrend.

However, the analogy to 2022 can only serve as sentiment and cycle background and cannot be simply applied. That bear market was overlaid with multiple impacts such as the Fed rate hike, liquidity tightening, and the FTX collapse; the current market faces different macro interest rates, regulatory environment, ETF fund flows, and institutional participation.

In other words, 2022 can explain that "high optimism may conceal downside risks," but it cannot directly infer that "this time will inevitably replicate the same magnitude of decline."

World Cup Time Window Coincidence, But the Bottom Still Needs Price Confirmation

10x Research previously identified the 2026 World Cup period as a potential low point time window. The 2026 World Cup runs from June 11 to July 19, and we are currently in this timeframe, which has brought back attention to its previous time anchor.

However, the time window is not price confirmation. Even if Bitcoin continues to probe lower during the World Cup, we still need to see whether the market shows signs of volume support, leverage washout, macro catalyst changes, or other signals that can underpin a bottom. Conversely, if the price does not break through a key area, relying solely on the time window cannot prove that the bottom has been reached.

This is also the biggest limitation of public information: the article only shows that 10x Research is discussing the catalysts for the low point, the final fine-tuning of the low point, and the next buying opportunity, but the full answer is not yet public. Investors can see the roadmap but have not seen the specific execution conditions.

Therefore, this assessment is more suitable as a risk warning rather than a trading instruction. If Bitcoin falls to $55,000, the market will more carefully test the $50,000 target; if the price regains stability above $60,000 and resumes its upward momentum, the explanatory power of the A-B-C path will be challenged.

Currently, Bitcoin is still hovering around $60,000. 10x Research is focusing on the final stage of the bear market, but what will truly determine if this path is valid is the price reaction near $55,000 next and whether there will be catalysts significant enough to confirm the cycle's low point.

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