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Oil Price Plunge | Rewire News Morning Brief

Aug 3, 09:50
Oil Price Plunge | Rewire News Morning Brief

Trump Suspends "Largest Airstrike Since World War II" Plan, Negotiations to Resume Monday, Oil Price Drops 5%.


1 | Iran Front: From "Maximum Pressure" to "Pause" in Less Than 24 Hours


Trump on Saturday announced the suspension of the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure. The day before, he had ordered a military action described as the "largest scale since World War II."


The direct reversal came from Gulf allies. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, along with Qatari and UAE leaders, called for "prioritizing dialogue." On the same day, Iran announced that negotiations with Oman on the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz had entered the "final stage." Talks are set to resume on Monday afternoon.


The market quickly reacted. Brent crude oil fell by around 5.6% to around $83, and US stock futures surged. However, analysts pointed out that Iran is sensing an advantage in the repeated cycle of escalation and de-escalation. Tehran has extended its frontlines through proxies to the Red Sea and the Strait of Mandeb while approaching deals on the diplomatic table. The pattern of "threatening a strike and then withdrawing" over the past five months has occurred multiple times, with each retreat strengthening Iran's position. (Continued from yesterday's report)


(Source: Fortune / Al Jazeera / CNN / NPR)


2 | AI Governance Divide: Altman Calls for "Deceleration," Silicon Valley Divided on Superintelligent Roadmap


Sam Altman stated at a Senate meeting on July 29 that AI development "may need regulation of the pace," giving society time to adapt to new levels of capability. He avoided "pausing," opting for the more ambiguous "pacing."


Meanwhile, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta jointly signed an open letter, warning that restricting open-source models would "stifle competition" and "drive innovation overseas." OpenAI and Anthropic did not sign. Axios called this standoff the "AI Declaration War." The debate revolves around whether safety comes from allowing powerful AI to proliferate or from blocking it.


The catalyst comes from China. Kimi K3 has achieved state-of-the-art levels with open-source weights, proving that the open path is viable. Washington is deciding whether to establish a regulatory framework for open-source models. Those building AI are not even united on whether to continue building at the current pace, and those governing AI lack the necessary tools.


(Source: TechCrunch / Axios / CNBC / Eastern Herald)


3 | Zelensky Requests Unlocking Starlink's Strike Capability, Musk Declines Meeting


Ukrainian President Zelensky raised the issue during a closed-door meeting with Trump on July 28, expressing the hope that the U.S. could persuade Musk to allow Ukraine to use Starlink to target Russian domestic sites. SpaceX currently limits Starlink's military use to within Ukraine's borders.


Ukraine's request is very specific. When remote drones conduct cross-border strikes, they can only rely on AI navigation to hit fixed targets like refineries, but they cannot track and destroy mobile ballistic missile launchers. Starlink's real-time targeting capability is the missing piece of that puzzle.


Moscow sees Starlink as a "serious threat." Musk has refused to meet with Zelensky, citing "preventing escalation of conflict" multiple times to restrict military features. Trump did not make any commitments. A commercial satellite network has become a key variable in a war, where its owner does not want to engage in conflict, and its users cannot bypass the owner.


(Source: Fortune / WSLS / IBTimes)


4 | Trump Media Transfers Another $165 Million in Bitcoin to Crypto.com, Totaling $545 Million Transferred


Trump Media transferred 2,628 bitcoins (approximately $165 million) to Crypto.com on Saturday, claiming it was "not a sale." This is similar to a transaction in May that used the same explanation. On-chain data can only confirm that the tokens were moved to the exchange and cannot confirm if they were actually sold.


But the numbers are tightening. The publicly tagged wallet currently holds about 4,261 BTC (approximately $268 million), nearly matching the company's first-quarter disclosed convertible note collateral requirement of 4,260.73 BTC. The total transferred now stands at 7,281 BTC, worth around $545 million, with the holdings shrinking by about 63%.


Each "not a sale" transfer brings the remaining holdings closer to the collateral floor. A company repeatedly moving assets to exchanges but insisting they are not selling, leaving a position that conveniently matches the statutory minimum requirement, is losing persuasiveness with each transaction.


(Source: The Block / crypto.news / CoinRepublic)


Also Worth Knowing ↓


SpaceXAI commits to remove 69 unauthorized generators from its Mississippi data center, but the process will take a year. The alternative is a 1.2GW plant consisting of 41 permanent gas turbines. NAACP has sued over pollution concerns. The hunger for AI computational power is turning data centers into mini power plants.


(Source: Tom's Hardware / Engadget)


Robinhood predicts market revenue has surpassed stock trading revenue. The distance from broker to casino is shorter than most people imagine. (Source: The Information)


Bank of America acquires UK cybersecurity firm MDSec Consulting. The banking industry is shifting cybersecurity capabilities from outsourcing to in-house. (Source: Finextra)


Saylor hints at resuming Bitcoin purchases after a five-week pause. STRC rate remains at 12%, "the Bitcoin engine has been restarted." (Source: The Block)


U.S. 30-year Treasury bond yield rises to the highest level since 2007. The average yield over the past 50 years has been 6.2%, and a mean reversion is underway. However, this reversion is happening against the backdrop of U.S. Treasury issuance far exceeding that of 2007. (Source: A Wealth of Common Sense)


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