Wall Street Morning Brief: Market Surges on Oil Price and AI Repair, Nvidia the Sole Decliner, Data Centers Become a Political and Regulatory Flashpoint, CPI Missing YoY Adds Uncer

Every Monday to Friday morning, we focus on macro, US equities, AI, precious metals and crude oil — reviewing the market with data and seizing the initiative with trends. Produced by us.

US-Iran Nuclear Talks Play Out as Competing Narratives, Washington's Political Infighting Escalates, Data Center Bill and Shutdown Crisis Intertwine

Driven by the unwinding of geopolitical premium and by short covering, US stocks staged a violent rebound on Monday. The S&P 500 jumped 2.35%, its biggest single-day gain in seven months, with all 11 major sectors rising; the Nasdaq Composite soared 2.74%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 2.15%; and the Russell 2000 rocketed 3.15%.

The trigger for the market revelry was a potential turning point in the Middle East. According to Saudi outlet Al Arabiya, with Qatar and Pakistan mediating, the US and Iran restarted nuclear talks and reached a preliminary consensus: Washington agreed to let Iran maintain uranium enrichment of up to 3.67%, and in exchange the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and the US would unfreeze US$6 billion to US$9 billion of Iranian assets. After meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed, Trump said positive momentum had emerged toward ending the conflict. Although Iran's top security official Rezaei later denied the report and accused the US of fabricating fake news, oil traders had already sold first. Brent crude futures plunged nearly 8% intraday, and WTI crude futures touched a low of US$85.02; both hit their lowest since August 31, while China's SC crude front-month contract also fell below the RMB 600 mark for the first time since August.

Meanwhile, undercurrents are stirring in Washington politics. Just six days after a crushing midterm defeat, Trump — who had just replaced his White House chief of staff with hardliner Stephen Miller — suddenly overturned his earlier cooperative stance, reviving conspiracy theories and questioning fraud in early voting and voting machines; Democrat Chuck Schumer, about to take over as Senate Majority Leader, responded with sarcasm, saying Trump has fallen into the same old routine and cannot change the fact that he will face the largest Democratic congressional majority in decades over the next two years.

The two parties' battle over the war and infrastructure has reached a fever pitch. Kentucky Republican Representative Thomas Massie abruptly went on the attack, filing a resolution to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over military actions in Iran, Yemen and Venezuela. At the same time, House Appropriations Committee ranking Democrat Rosa DeLauro and Senator Patty Murray signaled that they are considering using the December 11 government funding deadline as leverage and wielding the "power of the purse" to force Trump to end the Iran war that is driving up living costs — which could trigger the fourth government shutdown of Trump's tenure. In addition, the Senate has launched a procedural vote on a bipartisan bill to accelerate permitting for data centers and transmission grids, intended to shorten environmental reviews and make big tech bear the electricity costs, but House Democratic leader Jeffries and the party's environmentalist wing still consider the regulation insufficient, and political resistance remains heavy.

The oil plunge eased inflation concerns, pushing the dollar index down about 0.5% intraday to 101.78, while the offshore renminbi strengthened past the 6.67 mark. The dollar's retreat drove a broad counterattack in precious metals: COMEX November gold futures rose 1% to US$4,105/oz, spot gold jumped more than 1.7% to US$4,140.69, and COMEX silver futures and copper futures both advanced.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury market was cautious, with yields edging higher for a second straight session. The latest hawkish remarks from two Fed officials further confirmed the bond market's caution: Richmond Fed President Barkin and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee sounded alarms in succession, stressing the risk of runaway services inflation and the pressure from companies passing on costs, with the direction of rate hikes still clear. More dramatically, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that tonight's October CPI will be entirely missing "year-on-year data" (because the 2025 government shutdown caused the loss of base-period data), leaving only month-on-month forecasts (core CPI MoM expected to slow to 0.2%); macro traders now face a pricing challenge akin to blind men touching an elephant.

AI Infrastructure Stages a Strong Recovery; Anthropic Takes New Models Into an Uphill IPO

US tech stocks staged a "decentralized" session overnight, with capital flooding into semiconductors, optical communications, memory and AI power names that had been oversold, driving the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 6.85% and nearly 11.4% over two sessions. Ken Polcari, chief market strategist at SlateStone Wealth, noted that the AI industry has already developed powerful internal momentum of its own, and that neither turmoil at any single giant nor Democratic regulatory constraints can reverse the AI investment logic.

Currently, the AI compute race is fissioning from a "general-purpose GPU monopoly" into "specialized chips." Amin Vahdat, who heads Google's chip business, says "the future belongs to specialization," and the major tech giants are breaking through compute bottlenecks by developing their own cost-effective ASIC chips and launching extremely low-cost lightweight agent models. Meanwhile, although US voters rejected data center measures in 40 of 41 recent local referendums, and Democrats who took power after the midterms are trying to rein in new high-energy-consuming projects, tech giants are bypassing grid permitting bottlenecks through vertical integration such as building their own gas-fired power plants, directly igniting a short squeeze across the entire AI infrastructure supply chain.

Last night, Anthropic faced its IPO test. On Monday the company released its new-generation flagship models Claude Fable 5.2 (available to all users, with enhanced safety protections) and Claude Mythos 5.2 (for vetted institutions); while lifting output speed by 30% and supporting a 2.5x speed mode, it cut standard input/output prices by 20% to US$8 and US$40 per million tokens, and in testing 1,000 Fable agents completed a formal proof of Fermat's Last Theorem in just 30 hours.

Despite questions over Q3 growth slowing to 47% quarter-on-quarter from 144% and a single-quarter net loss of US$23.291 billion (dragged down by US$5 billion of compute purchases and a US$895.4 billion long-term infrastructure commitment), and despite having to urgently update bankers because of erroneous data in its filing documents, the company still plans to launch its roadshow as early as this Tuesday.

Backed by more than 20 banks including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the IPO plans to offer about 867 million Class A shares at a price range of US$70 to US$80 per share, raising as much as US$69.3 billion to US$100 billion, and aims to list on Nasdaq under the ticker "ANT" next Thursday or Friday. Hit by the Nasdaq's US$2.5 trillion single-day wipeout earlier and by OpenAI's fundraising falling short of expectations, potential investors have slashed Anthropic's target valuation from US$2 trillion a few months ago and US$1.5 trillion a week ago to a range of US$1.1 trillion to US$1.3 trillion. Matt Kennedy, senior strategist at Renaissance Capital, said that while a VIX fear index above 25 would normally force companies to postpone listings, Anthropic's size is exceptional; against the backdrop of the current market recovery, offering a discount to lock in expected returns will be the ultimate test of the public market's true appetite for high-capex AI assets.

Specific Company Moves and Share Price Action:

• AMD surged 13.26%: Oppenheimer upgraded it to "Outperform," and the company announced that its fifth-generation EPYC server processors, combined with Infinity Guard security technology, now provide host infrastructure for Google Cloud's newly launched TPU 8tx system, having already locked in more than 10 hyperscale cloud service providers and frontier AI labs worldwide.
• SpaceX jumped 5.81%: Despite threats from Democratic Representative Robert Garcia and Senator Elizabeth Warren to launch an investigation into the company after taking over Congress next January, and opposition from Gina Hinojosa, Texas's Democratic governor-elect, whose campaign platform includes controlling data centers, Musk still increased investment against the wind. According to a Starbase city hearing notice, SpaceX plans to invest US$24 billion to build its own gas-fired power plant and supercomputing facility locally, with the project scheduled for a tax abatement review on December 9. In addition, SpaceX is achieving full-supply-chain vertical integration of "natural gas power generation + liquefied methane rocket fuel" by hiring natural gas traders and building its own gas pipeline in Florida, aiming to completely bypass the years-long interconnection queue for the Texas main grid.
• Eli Lilly closed up 4.28%, Vir jumped 11.75%: The US FDA required all GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (including Lilly's Mounjaro/Zepbound and Novo Nordisk's Ozempic/Wegovy) to add a label warning about the rare eye disease NAION (non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy, which can cause permanent blindness, with an incidence of 6.4 cases per 100,000 person-years in the treatment group), and both Lilly and Novo Nordisk stepped forward to reassure the market. But Lilly also announced major good news the same day: its once-daily oral weight-loss drug Foundayo reduced sleep apnea interruption events by up to 44% in a Phase III trial, with an application planned before year-end, completely overshadowing the negative impact of the label warning. Meanwhile, biotech stock Vir soared after its Phase III trial of a combination therapy for chronic hepatitis D proved a major success (79% of patients had undetectable viral RNA at 48 weeks).
• Semiconductors and AI hardware surged across the board: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumped 6.85% (Nvidia was the only component to close lower), Broadcom jumped 8.78%, TSMC rose 3.51%, Intel rose 5.49%, Marvell Technology rose 9.49%; in AI compute leasing and servers, CoreWeave — which signed a multi-year Blackwell GPU agreement with UK autonomous driving company Wayve — rose 5.56%, NEBIUS rose about 5%, Dell rose 6.4%, and Oracle rose 2.7%.
• Memory chips and optical communications shot straight up: among optical names, Coherent rocketed 16.79%, Astera Labs jumped more than 13%, Lumentum surged 10.69%, Credo rose more than 10%, and Corning rose 9.25%; among memory names, Seagate Technology and Western Digital both surged nearly 10%, Micron Technology rose 6.25%, SanDisk rose 6.16%, and SK Hynix's US shares rose 5.5%.
• AI power infrastructure came alive across the board: with the Senate advancing data center permitting reform and Musk pushing gas plant vertical integration, the market is betting that the "the end of compute is energy" logic keeps paying off. Bloom Energy soared 11.91%, Ferguson jumped 11.22%, Vertiv Holdings jumped 9.63%, GE Vernova — which won an order for a 16.5 MW onshore wind turbine in Germany plus a 20-year service agreement — jumped 7.13%, and Eaton rose about 5%.

Full Performance of the Magnificent Seven (Mag 7) (the Wind Magnificent Seven Index closed up 1.34%, six up, one down):

• Nvidia was the sole decliner, down 4.27%: Jensen Huang is mired in a shareholder class action at a California federal court, accused of failing to disclose executives' personal relationships and the impact of potential national security risks on the business's reputation; Huang also withdrew in succession from two high-profile AI summit conversations, with Anthropic and with ElevenLabs. Even though Trump spoke out on two consecutive days in support of Huang — saying he "is an honest man and will be fine" — and confirmed the FBI is involved in an investigation, that could not stop panic selling that at one point approached 9% in early trading.
• Tesla jumped 5.54%: Musk confirmed that the Cybertruck — whose cumulative sales over the past three years reached only a tenth of planned capacity because the opportunity cost of manufacturing complexity was too high — will cease production in about eight months with deposits refunded, freeing up production lines at the Texas plant to go all out on expanding the Cybercab robotaxi; meanwhile the Fremont plant has begun early-volume production of the Optimus humanoid robot under a plan for one million units a year (five times human work efficiency, with costs falling from US$30,000 to US$20,000), with deliveries to external customers planned for the end of 2027 under a "rent-only, no-sale" model.
• Meta jumped 5.12%: officially launched Muse Ember, its lightest and most efficient model designed for high-frequency agent tool calls and batch file processing, charging only US$0.1 and US$0.5 per million input/output tokens, sharply lowering enterprise AI operating costs.
• Apple closed up 2.43%: successfully completed a US$7.5 billion bond issuance underwritten by Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and others (including US$1.25 billion of floating-rate notes and US$6.25 billion of fixed-rate notes, with the highest coupon at 5.35% for notes due 2036), replenishing low-cost cash flow.
• Google closed up 1.18%: announced an expansion of its eighth-generation TPU product line, launching the TPU 8tx (paired with AMD chips, supporting hardware-level encrypted isolation, and halving inference latency) and the TPU 8i Max (dual-chip packaging with double compute and HBM bandwidth, targeting ultra-long context and multi-agent workloads). With roughly a 30% price advantage, Google's TPUs have already won nearly 100 major customers including Apple, Meta, Oracle and Anthropic, and OpenAI also plans to buy, mounting a direct assault on Nvidia's core turf.
• Amazon closed up 2.94%, Microsoft closed up 2.75%: helped by expectations of lower costs on the AI application side and by short covering in the broader market.

Notable After-Hours / Night-Session Movers:

• Rocket Lab closed up 10.91% but plunged nearly 7% after hours: after the bell it reported Q3 revenue up 73% year-on-year to US$268 million (beating the US$257.9 million expected), operating cash flow turning positive at US$7.2 million, and backlog surging 52% to a record US$3.57 billion (including nearly US$1 billion of new launch contracts, with the Iridium acquisition winning overwhelming shareholder support); however, the company announced that the maiden flight of its flagship medium-lift rocket Neutron is delayed to "no earlier than 2027," prompting intraday front-runners to sell heavily after hours.
• AST SpaceMobile closed up 14.1%, edged down about 1% after hours: after the bell it reported Q3 revenue of US$42.3 million (versus US$14.74 million a year earlier) and a loss of US$0.44 per share, with US$3.2 billion in ample cash and support from Japan's Rakuten J-LEO agreement worth US$1 billion plus US$1.2 billion of non-dilutive funding from a US quasi-government agency; the company maintained its full-year revenue guidance of US$150 million–US$200 million, announced that its next-generation ASIC chip lifts bandwidth 10-fold, said it will reach six satellites per month in December with a target of 45 in orbit by mid-2027, and unveiled its own 20-ton-class dedicated rocket Blacklift, supporting its share price at high levels.

What to Watch Next:

November 10 (Tuesday)

• 13:30 TSMC's October revenue report: the hardest, highest-frequency validation of global AI compute demand, directly affecting intraday sentiment for Nvidia and the entire US semiconductor sector.
• US-Russia-Ukraine trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi (through the 11th): working-level negotiations begin; if they deliver substantive progress on a ceasefire or a European security framework beyond prisoner exchanges, oil, gold, defense and European energy stocks will face repricing; the same day, Republicans in both chambers of Congress hold their respective party leadership elections, opening the 55-day post-election "lame-duck session" legislative battle.
• 21:30 US October CPI: the market expects both headline and core CPI to rise 0.3% MoM (previous readings: headline 3.7% YoY, core 2.6%); earlier at 21:15 the US weekly ADP employment change is released, and the same day brings the October NFIB small business confidence index and the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectations. As the last CPI before the December FOMC meeting, a strong reading would weld the probability of a December rate hike above 80%, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields and amplifying selling pressure on AI growth stocks.
• A dense barrage of Fed speeches: 17:00 Fed Governor Waller speaks; 22:35 2026 voter and Dallas Fed President Logan speaks; 02:30 the next day Kansas City Fed President Schmid speaks; 07:30 the next day Philadelphia Fed President Paulson speaks. Focus on how core officials' stance shifts before and after the CPI.
• US 10-year Treasury auction: the Treasury auctions US$42 billion of 10-year notes, testing whether the 10-year yield can hold the 4.85%–4.9% level; the auction result transmits directly into tech stock valuation models.
• Key earnings: before the US open watch On, D-Wave Quantum, Sea and Vodafone; after the close focus on CoreWeave (sharply lower since the midterms with CDS at record highs; focus on data center orders under state-level regulation, bearing of grid costs and financing pressure), Firefly Aerospace and Rigetti Computing.

November 11 (Wednesday)

• US earnings: before the open watch Applied Aerospace & Defense and RUM Group; after the close watch Corteva and EnerSys.

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