Yesterday, 90% of the new Opus release expectations fell through, with AI Smart Money predicting that the next generation Claude Opus will not be released today.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put $2.0k into "no" on "Will the next-generation Claude Opus model be released before July 24, 2026?", with an average buy-in probability of 66.5% and the current "yes" probability at 26.5%.

Parz1vaI has invested $2.0k, and the top related category in this market is Artificial Intelligence, with a net profit of $40.2k. In this category, out of 224 settled transactions, the win rate is 171/224 (76%), with 46 transactions where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and the sell-out price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $2.4k.

The probability of the next-generation Claude Opus model being released on July 23 saw a spike from about 10% to almost 90%, but Anthropic ultimately did not release a new model. What was launched that day was only a voice mode added to the existing Opus and Sonnet.

TestingCatalog previously discovered that an early preview of what appeared to be Claude Opus 5 briefly appeared in the model selector of a programming tool, and a matching model string was found in the Google Vertex AI quota directory, indicating potential support for 1 million Token context, xhigh inference intensity, and a fallback to Opus 4.8 security mechanism. However, as of now, there is still no public pricing, system hang, or official model ID, and no new Opus has been mentioned in Anthropic's official website or API release notes.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, it is deduced that this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461

Total Investment: $2.0k
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