Oil prices continue to rise, with the oil sector smart money predicting Congress to temporarily suspend the 18.4-cent gasoline tax.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money bet $878 on "Federal Gas Tax Will Be Suspended Before November 2," with an average buying probability of 20.2%. The current probability of "yes" is 33.0%.

0x1104d937 bet $878, and the most relevant category to this market is Oil, with a net profit of $14.6k. Out of 37 settled transactions in this category, the win rate is 33/37 (89%), including 7 transactions where the buying price was below $0.8 and the selling price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.151-$0.2), the median historical investment amount is $949.

In May of this year, Trump proposed a suspension of the federal gas tax of 18.4 cents per gallon, with both parties in Congress subsequently submitting temporary tax cut proposals to alleviate the fuel price increase caused by the US-Iran conflict. Republican Senator Josh Hawley then proposed a bill to suspend gasoline and diesel taxes for 90 days, while Democratic lawmakers presented another plan to suspend the gas tax until October 1. However, Trump cannot unilaterally change the federal tax rate. According to the market rules, the bill must pass both houses of Congress and be officially enacted to settle as "yes."

The recent rebound in oil prices is providing new political impetus to the bill. The average US gasoline price has exceeded $4 per gallon again, Brent crude has risen to $101 per barrel, a weekly increase of 14.6%, with only one oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz on July 23. A survey by the Pew Research Center shows that the percentage of Americans concerned about gas prices has risen from 34% in January to 56%.

As of now, neither Hawley's 90-day pause proposal nor the Democratic complementary bill has entered a full-house vote in either chamber. The House of Representatives has already started a recess until the end of August, and the Senate will also leave Washington from August 10 to September 11, leaving only September for both chambers to legislate together before November 2.

Note: Based on their past transaction profile, the trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur but instead engages in profit-taking and stop-loss behavior after opening positions.

Account:
0x1104d937f3635fc20f42d56c2855e72f0ec5002a

Total Investment: $878
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