U.S.-Iran Conflict Escalates, Israel Says Ready for "Defense and Offense", 95% Accurate Oracle Predicts Ceasefire Between Iran and Israel to Be Broken by September
According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a clever money has put in $1200 to predict "Will the ceasefire between Israel and Iran last until August 31st?", with an average buy-in probability of 62.0%. Currently, the probability of "Yes" is 42.5%.
0x836ffd95 has put in $1200, with the best-performing market segment being Israel x Iran, with a net profit of $6300. Within this segment, out of 40 settled trades, the win rate is 38/40 (95%), with 1 trade where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95.
According to market rules, the market will only settle as "No" if by 23:59 on August 31, 2026 (Iran Standard Time), Israel or Iran conducts a defined air raid or ground-to-ground missile attack on each other's territory.
On July 19, three missiles launched by Iran towards the Jordanian Aqaba direction were destroyed before reaching their target, with the debris briefly threatening Israel's Eilat. A report by the Associated Press at 19:59 UTC on July 24 stated that in the latest round of conflict, Israel has not been a direct target and has not participated in the latest U.S. airstrike on Iran.
An article in the World News on July 21 stated that Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz mentioned that the Israeli military is prepared to take "defensive and offensive" actions and warned that if Iran were to launch missiles at Israel, Israel would respond with a full strike. Axios reported on July 24 that Trump plans to meet Netanyahu at the White House next Tuesday, amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which could be a policy juncture for whether Israel will directly intervene again.
It should be noted that this account simultaneously bought into multiple short-term markets as "Yes," but bought "No" in the market on August 31, which may involve arbitrage across markets, timing for profit-taking, or stop-loss strategies, rather than a simple prediction of a single outcome.
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, it is determined that this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs, but engages in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x836ffd95ef3cf3c7987612279b2152b11ce6906e
Total Investment: $1.2k
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