【Prediction Correct】 Most analysts had predicted no change in interest rates, but the Bank of Russia unexpectedly cut the rate

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a global interest rate sector whale previously bet $1.5k on "Will the Russian Central Bank cut key interest rates after the July meeting?" with an average buy-in probability of 39.3%. The market has now settled as "Yes".

On the 24th, the Russian Central Bank announced a 25 basis point cut in the key interest rate, from 14.25% to 14%, a rate cut that exceeded the expectations of most analysts. Reuters reported that rising fuel prices, attacks on refineries, and increased inflation expectations had led the market to widely expect the rate to remain unchanged.

The Russian Central Bank believes that the summer price surge was mainly driven by one-off factors, with underlying inflation still in the range of 4% to 5% on an annualized basis. Expectations of future demand and output from businesses have significantly declined, leading to a slight rate cut. The central bank also raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 6% to 7% and lowered the GDP growth forecast to 0% to 1%.
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