Serenity: AI Hardware Sector Pullback Mainly Due to Short-Term Deleveraging, Long-Term Demand Thesis Unchanged

July 29th, Serenity's article stated that the recent significant pullback in the AI hardware sector is more like a short-term deleveraging-induced overshoot rather than fundamental deterioration. It pointed out that recent financial reports from companies such as Bloom Energy and Teradyne showed significant revenue and profit growth, and Chinese optoelectronic module manufacturers also issued strong performance forecasts. It is expected that upcoming reports from companies like Lumentum, SanDisk, and SK Hynix will continue to validate the accelerated demand for AI.

Alphabet has raised its 2026 capital expenditure to $195 billion to $205 billion, which is one of the most important signals of the ultra-large-scale cloud service providers' AI demand. At the same time, the market's concerns about the Federal Reserve's further substantial interest rate hikes this year and China's oversupply of storage chip capacity have been significantly exaggerated. Long-term procurement agreements (LTA) from companies like Meta and Google and collaborations with storage manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron also reflect a structural growth trend in AI storage demand, including HBM.

Serenity stated that as long as revenue and EPS of AI industry chain enterprises continue to accelerate, the long-term investment thesis remains valid. It is expected that the AI theme will gradually recover in the future, but the specific timing cannot be determined.