A certain financial sector smart money prediction AI company Lambda is not expected to reach a valuation of $12.5 billion (HIGH).

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor placed a $2.8k bet on whether the valuation of Lambda will reach $12.5 billion by December 31st (HIGH), with an average buy-in probability of 49.4%. Currently, the probability of "YES" is 28.5%.

Address 0xd12f443b placed a $2.8k bet, with the most relevant category in this market being Finance, resulting in a net profit of $2.5k. Out of 121 settled trades in this category, the win rate was 99/121 (82%), with 14 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.401-$0.55), the median historical investment amount was $68, making this current investment 41.8 times the median.

Lambda is a U.S.-based AI infrastructure company founded in 2012, positioned similarly to CoreWeave, which is yet to go public. The company's primary offerings include GPU cloud computing, dedicated AI clusters, and data center infrastructure. Lambda's per-share valuation on Nasdaq Private Market in July was $41.95, and the company has not yet had a public market offering price. Forge's private market reference price on June 13th was $49.25 per share, implying a valuation of around $9 billion.

On May 20th, Lambda signed a cloud computing contract with Hudson River Trading to provide over 1,000 NVIDIA Blackwell systems, with the contract amount undisclosed. The company also previously entered a multi-year computing agreement with Microsoft to deploy tens of thousands of NVIDIA GPUs. Public records indicate that Lambda generated over $520 million in revenue in the 12 months ending September 2025, with a loss of approximately $175 million. The company currently plans to schedule its IPO for the second half of 2026.

Disclaimer: Based on their historical trading profile, this trader is not necessarily betting on the outcome of the event, and may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position.

Account:
0xd12f443b6a45225ae65d519a4bdef568d29ce85a

Total Investment: $2.8k
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