The United States Sanctions Iran's Mandatory Insurance Network, Houllmud's Smart Money Predicts Iran Will Charge

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a savvy investor has put in $10.6k on the question "Will Iran collect the Hormuz fee by October 31st?" with an average buy-in probability of 56.0%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 55.5%.

Address 0x246b6f2c has invested $10.6k, and the most related category in this market is the Strait of Hormuz, with a net profit of $49.7k. Out of 17 settled trades in this category, their win rate is 16/17 (94%), with a total of 7 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501-$0.65), the median historical investment amount is $9.7k.

This event requires the Iranian government to formally announce the fee policy and be jointly confirmed by credible reports that the collection has begun. On the 29th, the U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Persian Gulf Marine Insurance Company and the HormuzSafe Marine Services Authority, stating that both companies require commercial ships to purchase Iran-approved compulsory maritime insurance to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with some payments made in digital assets. The U.S. Treasury referred to this system as the IRGC-backed Hormuz Cash-Out Network.

On the 28th, Oman submitted a Gulf-backed management plan for the Strait of Hormuz to Iran, where shipping companies can voluntarily contribute fees for navigation management, environmental protection, and maritime search and rescue. On the 29th, a senior Iranian official rejected the regional joint management plan and demanded that Iran control all inbound and part of the outbound maritime passages. Data released by Kpler on the same day showed that 8 merchant ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the 28th, while only 1 ship was recorded on the 29th. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard also claimed to have intercepted 3 oil tankers using unauthorized routes.

Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.

Account:
0x246b6f2cf1eb3c74ab82b5d7288ef49baeed1196

Total Investment: $10.6k
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