Trump Claims Talks with Iran Today, 4 Polite Coins on Political Board Predict No Diplomatic Meeting Before Mid-Month
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, 4 savvy investors have placed a total of $18.5k on the question "Will the US-Iran diplomatic meeting be held before August 15, 2026?", with an average buy probability of 75.6%. The current "Yes" probability stands at 29.0%.
paddaa invested $4.6k, with the top-related category in this market being Politics, yielding a net profit of $152k. Out of 1383 settled trades in this category, they have a win rate of 765/1383 (55%), with 297 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount is $973.
0x9c987f84 invested $5.4k, with the top-related category in this market being Geopolitics, yielding a net profit of $56.5k. Out of 85 settled trades in this category, they have a win rate of 64/85 (75%), with 14 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.701-$0.85), the median historical investment amount is $2.2k.
0x4f90a3ea invested $2.8k, with the top-related category in this market being Politics, yielding a net profit of $8.2k. Out of 50 settled trades in this category, they have a win rate of 42/50 (84%), with 25 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $950.
Jep-G invested $5.7k, with the top-related category in this market being Politics, yielding a net profit of $101k. Out of 1470 settled trades in this category, they have a win rate of 764/1470 (52%), with 274 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95. In the similar cost range ($0.751-$0.9), the median historical investment amount is $378, and this investment is 15.0 times that median amount.
On the 2nd day, Trump announced the cancellation of a planned new military action, citing the need to "create space for diplomacy." Trump stated that US-Iran negotiations would begin on Monday afternoon without disclosing the location, participants, format, or a set deadline. Prior topics proposed by the US side include the Iran nuclear program, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and regional ceasefire arrangements. As of now, Iran has not confirmed its participation or announced any meeting details.
On the same day, the Associated Press reported that the pragmatic faction within the Iranian government supports using the current military pressure to push for negotiations, while some hardliners advocate for continuing the war and oppose making concessions to the US. These divergences are still affecting Iran's decision on formal negotiations and the conditions of any agreement.
Iranian President Pezheshkiyan stated on the 3rd day that Iran will work to implement the signed memorandum and emphasized the need for the other party to fulfill their obligations. Recently, Iranian Foreign Minister Allagzhi held separate conversations with officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey to discuss the regional situation. The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that the negotiations with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz are bilateral and do not involve any third party. As of now, no specific time, location, or list of representatives has been set for the US-Iran Monday talks.
Note: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions at a certain point after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x60a92c8620846d81f5ea17b0564e0d4b7c545a71
0x9c987f84d18a4dd640909409b31212fbb805f4f4
0x4f90a3eafe60584418cb3fc9134785cbe2bf517d
0x993c072519306017fe9a6b3ee6fa4a02b3056787
Total Investment: $18.5k
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