On the eve of the US-Iran negotiations restart, Iran's smart money predicts that Israel will not close its airspace before the middle of the month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket, a sharp investor has put in $13.0k on the question "Will Israel close its airspace before August 15?" with an average buy-in probability of 82.1%. The current probability of "Yes" is 9.5%.

thoodr has invested $13.0k, with the most relevant category being Iran in this market, with a net profit of $39.7k. Out of 55 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 55/55 (100%), with 1 trade where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.751-$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $2.3k.

As of now, Israeli airspace and Ben Gurion Airport remain operational. The Israeli Airports Authority website still provides flight arrival and departure information. The latest NOTAM mainly involves cargo flight periods, runway construction, and local airspace activities. Arkia's CEO Oz Berlowitz stated that the airport is currently handling around 90,000-100,000 passengers daily, with an average flight delay of 90 minutes during the summer peak.

On July 30, the Israeli Airports Authority announced that U.S. military refueling aircraft are occupying Ben Gurion Airport gates, affecting ground operations and flight schedules. The Transport Ministry has limited the number of stationed refueling aircraft to 20. Lufthansa and SWISS increased flights to Tel Aviv on August 1. Condor launched a daily Frankfurt to Tel Aviv route on the same day, with the first flight landing at Ben Gurion Airport.

On the 2nd, Trump called off a large-scale military operation against Iran and stated that U.S.-Iran negotiations would start on Monday afternoon. The location, participants, and duration of the agreement have not been disclosed. Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen mentioned that Israel is maintaining security and intelligence coordination with the U.S. The Israeli government will continue to monitor Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile projects.

NOTE: Based on their past trading behavior, this trader is not necessarily betting on the actual outcome of the event, as they may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss actions after opening a position at a certain point.

Account:
0x3eae57986be5e0ca435102ffe1f14206ffa2e2ed

Total Investment: $13.0k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow today, follow @PolyBeatsEN for early insights. Stay ahead with @PolyBeats_Bot