Powell Plans to Modify Fed Data Source, Employment and Inflation Pressure, New Account Pledge this Year Fed will Cut Rates
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has placed a $1.1k bet on "Will the Fed Cut Rates in 2026?", with an average buy-in probability of 7.0%. The current probability for "Yes" stands at 7.5%.
As of the latest data in July, both employment and some inflation data have not continued to heat up across the board. In June, the US non-farm payrolls only added 57k jobs, below expectations, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.2% due to a decline in the labor force participation rate; if weak hiring persists, it may create conditions for a small rate cut later this year. The Fed also noted that core inflation cooled slightly in June, with gasoline prices dropping nearly 10% from the previous month. If the Middle East conflict further eases, the continued decline in energy prices may further alleviate inflation pressures.
On July 9, Warsh established the Fed Data Source Working Group, tasked with evaluating new sources of information and data collection methods to enhance the timeliness and accuracy of economic signals used for policy decisions. Reuters reported on July 1 that Warsh hopes to have the Fed rely more on real-time economic data within about a year; the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) previously announced adjustments to the compilation of some inflation data, with market expectations that these changes may lead to downward revisions in September.
On July 29, the FOMC decided by a vote of 9 to 3 to maintain interest rates, with 3 members advocating for a rate hike; the Fed's monetary policy report on July 10 also stated that inflation has risen this year and remains above the 2% target, with energy supply shocks pushing up some prices. The July jobs report will be released on August 7, and the July CPI will be released on August 12; thereafter, the FOMC will hold a meeting with economic projections on September 15th and 16th.
Account:
0x0c7e862f02168e569e7d6ce75d96bffe4923437f
Total Bet: $1.1k
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