Market analyst "TwoEyes" predicts a bearish trend, increasing short positions by 1.4 million BTC and shorting Strategy-linked assets.

August 4th, according to TradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) monitoring, Polymarket trader "TwoEyes" this morning significantly increased their short positions in BTC and Strategy assets on Hyperliquid. At an average price of $63,679.4, they opened a new short position of 13.4011 BTC and also sold 5000 MSTR and 899.1 STRC, with a total additional short position transaction amount of approximately $1.404 million.

As of the time of writing, TwoEyes has built a short position based on this trading logic totaling $2.413 million:

Short 13,000 MSTR, with a position value of approximately $1.223 million, an entry price of $93.68, and a liquidation price of $110.92;

Short 13.4011 BTC, with a position value of approximately $854,000, an entry price of $63,679.4, and a liquidation price of $97,072.8;

Short 3661 STRC, with a position value of approximately $336,000, an entry price of $91.72, and a liquidation price of $109.03.

The total unrealized loss of the three positions is currently about $5,739. The price has not significantly moved in the expected direction yet, and the address has continued to place a non-"reduce-only" STRC sell order at $91.84, planning to further short 4100.9 units, with a notional amount of approximately $377,000.

This transaction is not isolated and has appeared on Hyperliquid.

Retrospective results show that this address corresponds to the Polymarket account "TwoEyes." Its active position in the prediction markets is currently valued at around $77,300, including:

$35,400 for "Federal Reserve 25 bps Rate Hike in September Yes,"

$26,200 for "US Will Invade Iran Before 2027 Yes,"

With a total value of approximately $61,600, currently with an unrealized loss of about $6,664.

One end is betting on rate hikes and war, while the other is shorting BTC, MSTR, and STRC; both sets of positions are pointing to escalating geopolitical risks, rate hike expectations, and pressure on risk assets.

Note: As of today, TwoEyes has not shown any new transactions on Polymarket, so it can only be confirmed at this time that its cross-platform positions align with each other. This cannot be used as evidence that TwoEyes has access to any undisclosed information.