Goldman Sachs expects the core PCE to be 0.23%, slightly above the core CPI and market consensus

August 13th - Following the CPI data, market attention has shifted to the July core PCE data to be released on August 26th. Goldman Sachs expects a 0.23% month-over-month increase in core PCE for July, slightly higher than the core CPI and market consensus. In particular, portfolio management fees are expected to rise by 8 basis points, reflecting second-quarter stock market gains.

Goldman Sachs has stated that the upcoming methodological changes may lead to PCE reading fluctuations and lower the annual core inflation rate. The bank expects the August core inflation rate to be close to 0.2% and believes that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates steady through the end of the year.