Analysis: The Fed meeting minutes will reveal whether the September rate hike is a "credibility hike" or the starting point of a new cycle.

October 7 — Investors will closely watch the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes for more clues about the thinking of policymakers when the Federal Reserve raised rates last month. BMO strategist Ian Lyngen said that before the last Fed meeting, a relatively common view among investors was that Fed Chair Warsh needed to raise rates to defend the central bank's policy credibility, rather than directly because recent economic data required further tightening. Lyngen said: "How much the committee discussed a similar 'credibility hike' framework will be very noteworthy. If this line of thinking was indeed discussed a fair amount, it could mean that the future rate hike path will be more gradual, which is also consistent with Williams' recent remarks."

He also said he would focus on how the FOMC assesses the balance of risks to achieving its "dual mandate" of full employment and price stability. The related discussion may help judge how strong the Fed's willingness is to continue raising rates, or whether the market has reason to truly regard the September rate hike as a one-off policy action. (Jinshi)