Justin Sun: Quantum computing risk is underestimated by the market, Q-Day may arrive within 1 to 1.5 years.

October 19: In a 3.5-hour offline conversation with Jin Ming, Tron founder Justin Sun stated that his current view on Bitcoin has actually become more bearish, primarily due to concerns that advances in AI and mathematics could accelerate the impact of quantum computing on existing cryptographic systems.

He believes the market has not fully priced in the so-called "Q-Day" risk—the critical point at which quantum computers gain the ability to break existing cryptography. He previously conservatively estimated that Q-Day might be two years away, but now believes this risk may need to be considered within the next 1 to 1.5 years.

Justin Sun pointed out that Bitcoin addresses, exchange hot wallets, and cryptographic mechanisms widely used across the internet could all be affected. If a large number of bitcoins that have long been dormant or whose private keys have been lost re-enter circulation as a result, the market could face enormous selling pressure. He estimates that the scale of potentially affected bitcoins could reach millions, though this judgment depends on future technological progress and the actual circumstances of the relevant addresses.

Regarding risk response, Justin Sun said he still holds Bitcoin and has not yet decided whether to reduce his position. At this stage, he plans to prioritize transferring the relevant assets to new addresses that have never been used for outgoing transactions, in order to reduce potential risk. He believes Bitcoin can respond to the threat through quantum-resistant upgrades, but upgrades require holders to proactively migrate assets, and whether the community can reach consensus on freezing dormant addresses, restricting the circulation of relevant assets, or conducting a hard fork remains highly uncertain.

The quantum computing risk is not unique to the cryptocurrency industry; cryptographic systems used by internet certificates, banks, and traditional financial markets could likewise be affected. He believes the industry should elevate this issue from a low-priority topic to one requiring close attention.

note: The above are Justin Sun's personal views and risk projections, and do not mean that quantum computing already has the ability to break Bitcoin's cryptography. The actual timing of Q-Day remains highly uncertain.