Two accounts with a 0% success rate in interest rate predictions disagree on whether there will be a rate hike this month.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the current probability of "the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in October" is 12%. A total of 2 accounts have invested $7k in this market.

Lenos bought $5.2k on "will raise rates by 25 basis points." This account has a 0% win rate across 4 trades in the Fed interest rate sector, with PnL -$3.2k and ROI -98.6%.
kotyakayebaka bought $1.8k on "will not raise rates by 25 basis points." This account has a 0% win rate across 5 trades in the Fed interest rate sector, with PnL -$1.8k and ROI -100%.

On October 14, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters that the Fed "more likely than not will need additional adjustments," but "I don't feel like we have to rush to make a decision when information is limited"; she emphasized that after gasoline-driven headline inflation heated up, the market initially reacted sharply and then cooled, and rising risks do not mean immediate action is required.

Several institutional commentaries noted that after the September rate hike, the policy rate has already fallen within 3.75%–4.00%, and officials' recent remarks have leaned more toward "there may be more rate hikes within the year, but October is not a must." Reports such as CNBC also mentioned that around October 16, futures priced in only about a 15% probability of an October rate hike.