Analyst: Significant divergence emerges in Bitcoin on-chain data, with whales turning to accumulation but spot demand remains weak.

October 20: On-chain data analyst XWIN, citing CryptoQuant data, stated that Bitcoin's current on-chain data is showing a significant divergence between whale behavior and the spot market. Although large holders have begun to re-accumulate, spot market demand remains weak, and the market is in a transition phase from "seller exhaustion" toward a possible bottom.

XWIN stated that on-chain data shows positive accumulation signals. Large holders holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have sharply reversed their 60-day net accumulation from negative 62,600 BTC to positive 5,230 BTC, indicating that major whales are shifting from distribution mode back to accumulation. Meanwhile, Binance's USDT reserves have surged from approximately $790 million to $1.76 billion, suggesting that potential buying power on the exchange is strengthening.

However, US spot buying has failed to keep pace. The Coinbase Premium Index is currently around -0.1416%, and weekly exchange flows have turned to a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. In addition, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) is hovering near 0.9982, indicating that short-term holders are still enduring small losses near the breakeven point and choosing to sell.

The analyst believes that although the underlying structure is improving, stronger spot demand is still urgently needed to catalyze a sustainable rally. He suggests investors focus on three key signals going forward: the direction of the Coinbase Premium Index, changes in exchange net flows, and whether STH-SOPR can successfully rise above the 1 threshold.