Federal agents search home of Somali-American lawmaker, 25% chance of indictment within the year

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Ilhan Omar was born in Somalia, became a U.S. citizen in 2000, and is currently a Democratic U.S. Representative from Minnesota. On October 12, Homeland Security Investigations searched her residence in Washington. On October 19, the New York Post claimed that DNA evidence could prove that Ahmed Nur Said Elmi, whom she married in 2009, is her biological brother, and that the marriage was to help him obtain a green card. Officials have not confirmed this claim.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the Polymarket market "The U.S. federal government indicts Ilhan Omar this year" is 25.5%.

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Omar is a long-time critic of Trump, and Trump publicly repeated the claim of "marrying her biological brother" as early as 2019. David Sklansky, a Stanford Law School professor and former federal prosecutor, said: "There are many reasons to suspect this is politically motivated." He noted that the Department of Justice has a tradition of avoiding investigative actions within 60 days before an election.