The Pizza Index has raised an alarm again, with five suspicious accounts emerging in the US-Iran prediction market sector.

According to monitoring by PolyBeats, at 14:49 Beijing time on October 22, Turkish media outlet GZT, citing Google Maps data, reported a notable increase in foot traffic at pizza shops around the Pentagon, once again fueling speculation that the United States may launch a new round of strikes against Iran. Similar spikes occurred before U.S. military operations against Venezuela in January and against Iran in June.

On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "the U.S.-Iran ceasefire lasting until November" fell by as much as 16 percentage points over the past 12 hours and currently stands at 74%. By tallying 4 high-odds markets nearing resolution, 5 accounts of note have been identified in this trading event:

0x1f23b99 registered on the eve of the U.S.-Iran war in February this year and that month put in $10k betting that "the U.S. or Israel will strike Iran within February," earning a profit of $22.6k (+226%). On October 16, the account put in $2.79k predicting that "the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will not last until November."

0xc5e10f and gA2bzxd23e are both new accounts registered today, currently holding positions only in this event, with a total of $14.9k invested; if a strike occurs within 24 hours, maximum profit would be $65.8k (+441.4%).

The 61 settled markets Hossein-m has participated in are all related to the Iran sector, with a win rate of 75.4%, PnL of +$22.7k, and ROI of +48.5%. Its current positions are almost entirely bets on escalation: $5.25k invested buying "the Israel-Iran/U.S.-Iran ceasefire cannot last through 2027," $2.26k buying "Iran will fully close its airspace within this year," and it also bought "Yes" on USD/IRR rising to the 3 million to 4 million range by year-end, believing the rial will continue to depreciate.

SoulSolutions began trading after the war broke out on February 28. From March 2 to 3, it invested $30.3k buying "the Iranian regime will not fall before July," earning a profit of $17.2k (+57%). On October 17, the account returned and invested $5.3k buying "the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will not last until November."