Brazilian election defeat, Flávio flees to Miami, USA.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, earlier on October 25, the results of the second round of Brazil's presidential election were announced. On October 26, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Moraes, in a money laundering investigation, ordered Flávio to hand over his passport within 24 hours and barred him from leaving the country. Flávio denies the allegations and has not yet been charged.

On October 27, the deadline for handing over the passport expired, and Flávio did not comply. Brazil's Federal Police subsequently canceled his diplomatic passport and Italian passport. Because the court did not issue an arrest warrant for him, he is not considered a fugitive. Reuters and NBC reported that Flávio had already left Brazil for the United States, but Brazil's Federal Police said he did not depart through any official border checkpoint.

Today, the prediction market Polymarket launched "Will the US grant political asylum to Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?" The resolution rules state that Flávio must be formally granted US asylum for it to count as "Yes." Recognized scenarios include three: approval by US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) or an immigration judge; public confirmation by the US government that asylum has been granted; credible reports stating that asylum has been approved, including confirmation by Flávio himself or his lawyer.

The risk of Flávio's departure was planted before the election defeat. On October 8, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Moraes announced that the obstruction of justice conviction against Flávio's younger brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro, had taken effect, with a sentence of 4 years and 2 months. Moraes also ordered the revocation of all of Eduardo's passports, and the Associated Press subsequently reported that the Supreme Court had issued an arrest warrant for him. Eduardo has lived in the United States since early 2025. According to Reuters, he obtained a green card through the EB-1A extraordinary ability category and did not apply for asylum. On October 23, Eduardo publicly stated on a US podcast that if the second round was lost, Flávio should leave Brazil.