World Bank: Commodity prices expected to rise 23% in 2026, then fall 7% next year.

October 28: The World Bank said on Wednesday that global commodity prices are expected to rise 23% in 2026, affected by factors such as energy price increases during the Middle East war, freight disruptions, obstructed grain shipments from the Black Sea, and strong demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, the World Bank noted that oil, natural gas, food, and metal prices have all risen sharply this year as global shocks continue to intensify. If the Middle East conflict escalates further and damage to Russia's oil infrastructure continues, the situation could deteriorate further.

The report forecasts that commodity prices will fall 7% next year. But if shocks persist, including the most severe El Niño phenomenon since 1950, food commodity prices may remain elevated, increasing the risk of rising inflation and tighter monetary policy. The World Bank noted that global oil inventories have been continuously depleted during the Middle East war. The bank expects global oil supply to fall 5.2% in 2026, the largest decline in the past 40 years except during the 2020 global economic recession.