Intel Q3 Earnings Preview: AI Server CPU Demand in Focus, Institutions Eye Q4 Guidance and Capacity Expansion Investment

October 29 — Intel will release its third-quarter 2026 financial results after the U.S. market close on Thursday and hold an earnings call at 5:00 Beijing time on October 30. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg show quarterly revenue of approximately $16.5 billion, up about 21% year-over-year; adjusted earnings per share of approximately $0.40, higher than $0.23 in the same period last year. The company previously guided revenue of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, adjusted earnings per share of $0.38, and an adjusted gross margin of 42%.

Server CPU demand is a key focus of this earnings report. The market expects Intel's data center business quarterly revenue of approximately $6.6 billion and PC chip business revenue of approximately $8.8 billion. AI demand is driving data center CPU sales, but the PC market faces another pressure: rising memory and storage prices are pushing up whole-device prices, suppressing sales volume while raising average selling prices.

Bullish institutions are mainly betting on continued CPU supply tightness. New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu upgraded Intel from "Neutral" to "Buy" with a $125 price target, believing that the structural server CPU shortage driven by the rapid development of AI agents could last for years, supporting the company's data center business and transformation. KeyBanc maintained its "Overweight" rating and $155 price target, expecting third-quarter revenue of $16.9 billion and earnings per share of $0.46, both above market consensus.

JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur is relatively cautious. He recently upgraded the rating from "Underweight" to "Neutral" but maintained an $85 price target. Sur acknowledged the company's improvements in product execution, manufacturing yield, and advanced packaging after Lip-Bu Tan became CEO, and also believes that AI agent demand may drive further upward revisions to profit expectations; however, he expects Intel may still experience several quarters of market share loss, especially in the server CPU segment.

Capacity expansion investment is also key to subsequent guidance. Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner said in a July interview with Reuters that demand growth prompted the company to raise its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from $18 billion to $20 billion, with spending in 2027 set to increase significantly. He also noted that the company has signed supply agreements for CPUs and specialized chips with terms of three to five years, but the agreements may still be renegotiated if market conditions change.