Ansem: 'Limited BTC Drop After Binance Hack' Does Not Mean the Downtrend Is Over

October 30: Crypto trader Ansem posted that the fact "6 billion dollars stolen, yet Bitcoin only dropped 2%" should not be directly viewed as a bullish signal. He believes that Bitcoin's current trading structure is markedly different from years ago, and the market's lack of an immediate downward reaction to the event does not mean the downtrend will not continue.

He pointed out that in 2017, Bitcoin was still the primary target for leveraged speculation by crypto retail investors, but from 2020 to 2021, retail investors took on higher risk more through trading altcoins, and new traders on Uniswap had limited interest in Bitcoin. After 2023, due to the poor performance of altcoins on centralized exchanges, speculative activity further shifted on-chain, making meme coins more popular; now stock perpetual contracts have further diverted traders who might otherwise have leveraged long BTC.

Ansem believes that this change has affected BTC's price performance. In 2017, Bitcoin often rose rapidly after breaking through its historical high; while in 2021 and some phases from 2023 to 2025, there were more cases of breakthrough failure after slight new highs, as well as narrow-range consolidation lasting for months.

He cited the "10·10" liquidation event as an example, saying that BTC at the time had a limited decline compared with altcoins, and in the following weeks it was still trading above 100,000 dollars, while altcoins suffered heavy losses within a single candlestick. In his view, this is related to high-risk speculators no longer concentrating leveraged long positions in BTC.

Ansem emphasized that sellers may now be more passive, and there may be fewer speculators in the BTC market who could face leveraged liquidation than in the past, so one cannot conclude that the downtrend has ended merely because prices have shown short-term resilience.