Morgan Stanley warns that the power super cycle is underestimated by the market: global electricity consumption will reach 36 trillion kWh by 2030, with Asia contributing 64% of new demand.

November 3 - Morgan Stanley pointed out in its latest research report that the growth in global electricity demand is expanding from a single AI data center driver to three major drivers: AI, industrial relocation, and air conditioning cooling. The power industry is ushering in a new "super cycle," but the market has not yet fully priced in this trend.

Morgan Stanley raised its global electricity consumption forecast by about 10%, projecting that global electricity consumption will reach 36 trillion kWh by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 4.2%. Among this, Asia will contribute about 64% of the global incremental electricity consumption from 2025 to 2030, with India, the United States, and Australia seeing the largest upward revisions in electricity demand growth forecasts.

On the supply side, Morgan Stanley expects fossil fuels to still account for about 50% of the global power mix by 2030, and reliable coal-fired and natural gas power generation is expected to command higher scarcity premiums. Meanwhile, wholesale electricity prices in major markets are expected to rise about 20% year-on-year in 2026, and pricing power in the power industry is shifting from equipment manufacturers to power generation operators.

Morgan Stanley estimates that the trend of expanding electricity demand and rising electricity prices is expected to create about $500 billion in value and drive upward revisions of about 14% in 2028 earnings per share forecasts for related companies, but this has not yet been fully reflected in the stock market.