Middle East crude oil supply recovery accelerates, exports from four major oil-producing countries return to pre-war levels.

November 3 — According to tanker tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, combined crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait reached 15.53 million barrels per day in October, up about 10% month-on-month, essentially recovering to levels seen before the conflict broke out in February this year. Among them, Saudi Arabia's exports rose 13% to 7 million barrels per day, Iraq increased 9.5% to 3.35 million barrels, the UAE rose to 3.74 million barrels, and Kuwait grew by one-third to 1.44 million barrels.

Meanwhile, Iran's crude oil and condensate exports have recorded no loadings for a second consecutive month, mainly due to the U.S. maritime blockade. The supply recovery is also reflected in market structure, with the Dubai crude near-month contract flipping into contango for the first time since July, with the November contract at a discount of about $2 per barrel to the December contract, indicating short-term supply is loosening.

Increased supply combined with expectations that the U.S. and Iran may restart negotiations sent both Brent and WTI crude down about 7% on Monday. However, analysts noted that this round of export recovery has been relatively gradual, with no large-scale concentrated tanker loadings yet. At the same time, OPEC and its allies are preparing to hold a ministerial meeting on November 29 to discuss 2027 production targets.