US midterm elections affect three major market themes: AI investment, fiscal deficit, and debt ceiling.

November 3 - The results of the U.S. midterm elections could alter investors' expectations for AI capital expenditures, fiscal deficits, and debt ceiling negotiations, thereby affecting the trends of U.S. stocks, Treasury bonds, and the dollar. The market currently widely expects Democrats to win the House, but control of the Senate remains uncertain.

If Democrats gain full control of Congress, they may strengthen oversight of the AI industry, promote safety standards for frontier models and data center regulation, while intensifying investigations into the Trump administration and corporations.

If Congress is divided, budget disputes and debt ceiling negotiations could reach a deadlock, increasing the risk of a government shutdown.

If Republicans continue to control both chambers, policies such as tax cuts, expanded defense spending, and deregulation may continue, benefiting AI and infrastructure investment, but could also further exacerbate the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt pressure.

Analysts noted that the midterm elections' impact on the market is more about repricing policy expectations rather than directly determining stock market movements. Regardless of the election results, AI regulation, fiscal sustainability, and the possible restart of debt ceiling negotiations in 2027 will all become key factors affecting U.S. asset trends.