Predict.fun: Probability of Democrats Sweeping Both Chambers in U.S. Midterm Elections Rises to 99%

November 4 - The latest data from prediction market platform Predict.fun shows that the probability of "Democrats winning both the Senate and the House of Representatives" in the US midterm elections has risen to 99%. The probability of "Republicans keeping the Senate and Democrats winning the House" is 1%. The probability of "Republicans keeping both the Senate and the House" is 0.1%; the probability of "Democrats winning the Senate and Republicans keeping the House" is 1%.

As of 19:00 Eastern Time on November 3, voting in the US midterm elections continues, and polling stations in Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia, and Indiana have all closed, with voting concluded. In addition, voting has also ended in some congressional district races in Florida, and voting in the rest of the state will end at 20:00 Eastern Time that day. As polling stations in various states close one after another, vote counting in the relevant districts will also gradually begin.