Bitunix Analyst: NFP Reheats Tightening Bets — AI Leader’s National Security Risk Adds New Market Variables

November 9 — U.S. nonfarm payrolls added 165,000 jobs in October, far exceeding market expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. August and September data were also revised up by a combined 84,000, indicating that the labor market's actual resilience is stronger than previously estimated. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, with wage growth still showing no clear cooling; in addition, the number of people forced into part-time work for economic reasons increased by 339,000, reflecting that although the job market remains solid, there is still divergence in job quality and employment structure.

After the data release, market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December rose to about 80%. This refocuses policy attention on inflation control. However, single-month data still require subsequent verification, and the CPI to be released on November 10 will be the next key test; if prices also come in strong, tightening expectations may be further reinforced.

On the political front, another check has emerged. With Democrats controlling the Senate, they will gain greater authority to vet personnel nominations. Even if Warsh becomes Fed Chair, he may not be able to smoothly assemble a core team supporting his reform direction. This means the White House's room to influence monetary policy is constrained, but it does not mean interest rates are necessarily headed toward easing; actual policy will still depend on inflation, employment, and consensus within the FOMC.

On another front, NVIDIA's board launched an independent investigation following reports that founder Jensen Huang could become a target of foreign intelligence operations. There is currently no evidence that company secrets or national security information have been leaked, and the board has also expressed support for him to continue leading the company. The incident has drawn attention to the governance and national security risks of the AI leader. Overall, strong employment has pushed up rate expectations, political checks are limiting the Fed's personnel restructuring, and non-financial risks in the AI industry are gradually emerging. The dollar, bond yields, and tech stock valuations will continue to be affected by multiple factors.