Wintermute: Bitcoin closed the week below its 50-week moving average, with the next level to watch at $68,000.

November 9 - According to Wintermute's latest market review, last Thursday the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, the largest single-day drop since April 2025. Wintermute stated that after Democrats won both the Senate and House in the U.S. midterm elections, the market repriced regulatory risks in the AI sector, the crypto market weakened along with risk assets, and Bitcoin fell below $75,000. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion for the week, the largest since June this year, enough to erase year-to-date net inflows. Nonfarm payrolls released on Friday came in at 165,000, above market expectations of about 60,000, and the probability of a December rate hike rose from about 67% a week earlier to about 77%.

Wintermute said Bitcoin briefly rose to $81,000 on Wednesday but gave back all gains by Friday; on Sunday it touched a low of about $73,500, slightly above the 200-day moving average of about $73,000. The weekly close was just below the 50-week moving average of $75,500, ending a seven-week streak above that average. Entering Monday, more than $1 billion in positions were liquidated, with Ethereum liquidations exceeding Bitcoin's, and Bitcoin liquidations were almost entirely longs. Altcoins fell more sharply, with NEAR, HYPE, ENA, LIT and others down by double digits, while Bitcoin fell about 4% over the same period, and ZEC was one of the few large-cap tokens to rise.

Wintermute said it remains cautious while Bitcoin is below the 50-week moving average, with the next level to watch at $68,000, and a recovery above $80,000 would change that view. The firm said a daily close below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average could open the way toward $68,000; if the daily price holds above $80,000 and spot Bitcoin ETFs record a week of net inflows, its stance would turn positive. Wintermute noted that October CPI released on Tuesday is the first near-term test, with core CPI expected to rise 0.2% month over month; the Federal Reserve will meet on December 8-9, and the rate hike probability is currently about 77%.