Tom Lee: Last week's tech stock sell-off was the final shakeout, and the market has bottomed out.
November 10: Tom Lee said in a CNBC interview today that last week was the market bottom, not the start of a deeper correction.
On one hand, the market rose on Monday despite negative news: there was a slew of bad news over the weekend (the Jensen Huang scandal and Texas' action against Musk's companies), yet the market surged instead. "Rising on bad news" is typically a bottom signal.
On the other hand, the VIX term structure has normalized from inversion: last week the VIX term structure was inverted, and today it has returned to normal. This is "usually a sign of a market bottom — the market is much safer than people think."
Note: The so-called "VIX term structure inversion" refers to when acute panic and heavy selling hit the market, investors rush to buy short-term protection (short-term puts, etc.), causing near-term implied volatility to spike sharply above forward levels (VIX> VIX3M, ratio> 1). This is a typical signal of short-term stress and an explosion in hedging demand, with the curve sloping downward.