Fable5.2 released yesterday, is Google Carbon getting restless? Two high-win-rate accounts predict a new model will be released today.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, on October 9, Business Insider reported that Google employees had tested a version of Gemini 4 called Carbon on an internal programming tool. On October 28, a senior vice president at Google DeepMind announced Gemini 4 Carbon on the official blog, calling it "our strongest model."

On the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" probability for "Will Gemini Carbon be released before the end of November 10?" is 68%. Two accounts bought $952 of "Yes."

0x6c67…a67a bought $703 (1.4k shares, accounting for 11.36%, average price 0.5090). This account has an 87.5% win rate across 16 markets in the Google category, with PnL +$1.5k and ROI +20.7%. This trade's investment was 1.56 times its average investment in that category.
4ts3hc bought $249 (310 shares, accounting for 2.55%, average price 0.8043). This account has a 100% win rate across 9 markets in the Gemini category, with PnL +$3.9k and ROI +69.6%. This trade's investment was 0.4 times its average investment in that category.

On November 2, Google again confirmed in its October AI recap that Carbon is still in the pre-release testing stage with the U.S. government and in use by some trusted cyber defense personnel under the Fairwind program, and that there is still no timetable for a broader rollout to developers, enterprises, and consumers. X user haider1 posted on November 9 speculating that Argon opened to Google AI and Ultra subscribers about 15 days after its announcement; if Carbon follows the same cadence, its public launch could fall around November 10.