Divisions emerge over the Democratic Party's majority leader candidate, and Van Hollen's odds of being selected surge.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, the Senate Majority Leader is the floor leader elected by the majority party senators at a party caucus. The current Majority Leader is Republican John Thune, who was re-elected as leader by his Republican colleagues on November 10 and will become Minority Leader when the new Congress convenes. The current Democratic leader and current Minority Leader is Chuck Schumer.

On November 10, Bernie Sanders announced at a press conference that he would not support Schumer's re-election as Democratic leader, saying "now is the time for change." Elissa Slotkin, who appeared alongside him, demanded to first see a "concrete, genuinely different plan," otherwise she would vote against, and called on colleagues to withhold a quorum during the leadership election.

Affected by this news, on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" probability for "Will Schumer become the next Senate Majority Leader?" fell from 94% two days ago to the current 84%. The probability of another candidate, Van Hollen, being elected rose from 1.8% to 16%.

juno bought $1.5k "Yes" on "Van Hollen elected" (13.6k shares, 17.61% share, average price 0.1066). This account's win rate across 15 markets traded in the politics sector is 28.6%, with PnL +$11.5k and ROI +325.5%. This trade's investment was 6.18 times its average investment in this sector.
0x43ab…a0ef bought $1.2k "Yes" on "Van Hollen elected" (8.3k shares, 10.67% share, average price 0.1419). This account's win rate across 58 markets traded in the politics sector is 54.4%, with PnL +$5.7k and ROI +12.7%. This trade's investment was 1.53 times its average investment in this sector.

On November 7, Van Hollen publicly stated that the Majority Leader position should not automatically go to Schumer and that it should first be discussed within the caucus. The Democratic caucus rules state that if a leadership position is contested, there shall be a secret ballot, with the winner elected by a majority of caucus members present and voting, without further confirmation by the full chamber. Van Hollen himself has not yet formally announced his candidacy. Sanders and Slotkin have called for a change but have not endorsed Van Hollen.