Bitunix Analyst:Fed Personnel Power Struggle Heats Up—Stronger Dollar and BTC Leverage Cool in Parallel

November 12: BTC is oscillating around $73,700, with the market showing divergence as contract selling pressure dominates while spot passively absorbs it. Contract CVD is approximately -$1.864 billion, spot CVD is only +$195 million, and spot trading accounts for about 10.1%; coin-margined OI has dropped from 3.41B to 3.38B, stablecoin-margined OI is about 227.29K, still below the previous 235K, indicating that leveraged positions are cooling, but the large-holder long/short ratio of 2.35 still reflects that the positioning structure has not fully turned bearish. In the short term, it is necessary to watch whether the $72,690 to $72,800 support can hold; for a rebound, $74,000 to $74,400 must be reclaimed before there is room to reverse the weakness.

At the macro level, a personnel power dispute is emerging within the Federal Reserve. There is still disagreement over rule interpretation regarding whether New York Fed President Williams can serve until June 2028 and complete a ten-year term in his current role, or must leave when he turns 65 in June 2027. The New York Fed has a permanent vote on the FOMC; if Williams leaves early, Warsh will have an opportunity to influence the selection of a successor earlier; however, the appointment still involves selection by bank directors and approval by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. The core of the dispute is actually the boundary between power concentration in Washington and the autonomy of regional Federal Reserve Banks.

A stronger dollar is transmitting pressure to Asia. USD/JPY is approaching 160, Japan's October corporate goods prices rose 7.1% year-on-year, and yen-denominated import prices rose 24.8% year-on-year, indicating that the yen's depreciation continues to push up input costs, and Japanese officials have once again warned that the market should not ignore intervention risks. On the other hand, media reports said NVIDIA's board is considering Jensen Huang's future, and the news caused the stock to fall more than 8% after hours at one point, but it is still disclosure from sources and not yet a formal resolution. Market risk no longer comes only from the dollar and interest rates, but has also extended to governance and succession uncertainty at leading AI companies.