Greeks.live: BTC and ETH to see nearly $2.8 billion in options expiry this Friday, with BTC's max pain at $76,000

November 12 — Adam (Greeks.live) released its November 13 options expiry and weekly market analysis report. This BTC options expiry involves approximately 34,000 contracts with a notional value of $2.48 billion, a Put/Call Ratio (PCR) of 0.52, and a max pain point of $76,000; ETH options expiry involves approximately 148,000 contracts with a notional value of $300 million, a PCR of 1.55, and a max pain point of $2,200. The combined notional size of the two major options expiries this Friday is approximately $2.78 billion.

The report notes that the crypto market continued to face pressure this week amid the aftermath of the prior Binance hack incident, periodic net outflows from ETFs, and stronger-than-expected US CPI data. BTC previously broke below the $80,000 mark, dipping to the $72,700–$73,300 range mid-week before rebounding above $74,000, though still below the $76,000 max pain point. Deribit data shows that the largest concentration of open interest for BTC options expiring November 13 is in $81,000 call options; as the spot price moves further from that strike range, the report suggests a large number of out-of-the-money call options may expire worthless.

From an options structure perspective, the BTC expiry PCR of 0.52 indicates that open interest remains dominated by call options; however, the 24-hour volume PCR briefly rose to around 1.64, reflecting a notable increase in short-term put demand. The ETH expiry PCR reached 1.55, with the spot price in the $2,050–$2,130 range, below the $2,200 max pain point, and downside protection positions concentrated in the $2,100–$2,300 strike range.

On volatility, BTC's 1-month at-the-money implied volatility (1M ATM IV) is approximately 38%, while the 1-week at-the-money implied volatility (1W ATM IV) has risen above 39.2%, presenting an inverted term structure with short-term volatility higher than mid-to-long-term volatility; the 7-day realized volatility (RV) has exceeded 43%. Additionally, the 25 Delta Skew remains negative, indicating that put premiums are higher than call premiums; the Gamma exposure (GEX) distribution is skewed bearish, though strikes are relatively dispersed — while there is some support at the $72,000–$74,000 range, the market has not yet formed a consensus bottom-fishing expectation.

The report suggests watching for price recovery around the $76,000 max pain point ahead of expiry, and views the $74,080–$78,900 range as a potential "gravity zone." With the $80,000 resistance level difficult to reclaim quickly and the market in a phase of range-bound bottoming, the report suggests considering the relatively low out-of-the-money implied volatility of late-November and mid-to-long-term options to allocate monthly OTM Puts or construct a Bear Put Spread as directional risk protection.

Blockbeats note: The above market judgments and trading strategies are all views from the Greeks.live report and do not represent definitive trends.