Nvidia fell another 8.6% in after-hours trading, and the probability of it becoming the third-largest company by market cap rose by 36 percentage points.

According to PolyBeats monitoring, Nvidia closed regular trading on November 11 at $173.73, with a closing market cap of $4.195T, ranking second globally, behind only Apple. In after-hours trading, as reports related to Jensen Huang gained traction, the official after-hours close was $158.78, down 8.61% from the close, with a market cap of approximately $3.834T, falling to third; Microsoft's market cap was $3.865T. Fourth was Alphabet, with an after-hours market cap of $3.582T.

If based on this set of after-hours prices and freezing Alphabet's market cap, Nvidia would need to fall about another 6.6% to tie for fourth and lose its hold on third. The Polymarket market "Nvidia will be the third-largest company by market cap this year" probability rose from 1% on November 4 to 36% currently. The "Alphabet third" probability rose from 12% yesterday to 20% currently.

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Among institutions, the one who spoke most specifically about "how the stock would move if Jensen Huang stepped down" was Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities. He said multiple times from November 9 to 11 that if Jensen Huang were removed as chief executive officer, the company or stock value would be 25% to 30% lower; on another Polymarket market, "Nvidia market cap below $4T in 2026" probability rose from 8% a week ago to 47.7% currently.

Tristan Gerra of Baird downgraded Nvidia from Outperform to Neutral on November 11, cutting the target price from $500 to $200, citing not only the leadership change but also risks including a possible slowdown in cloud providers' capital expenditure, licensing, and related investigations, and wrote that before the dust settles, the best case for the stock is range-bound trading. Stacy Rasgon of Bernstein also downgraded it to Market Perform the same day, cutting the target price from $400 to $200, believing the biggest risk is whether he can continue to serve as chief executive officer, and that given the new allegations, it is almost impossible for the board to let him stay on.