Serenity: Nvidia's successor may struggle to sustain 70% year-over-year growth, with optical communications and memory chips sectors still expected to outperform the broader market.

November 13 — Serenity posted that Jensen Huang is difficult to replace for NVIDIA. He believes that NVIDIA's existing product roadmap, business commitments, and revenue base remain intact, and as long as AI demand persists, the new management can still drive growth in the existing business. However, he questions whether a successor could, like Jensen Huang, mobilize hundreds of billions in capital for next-generation technology, secure supply chain commitments, and maintain year-over-year growth of about 70% amid capacity constraints.

Serenity expects that the expansion of NVIDIA's ecosystem may slow. For new projects beyond the existing architecture, a successor may not be willing to make commitments of the same magnitude to emerging cloud service providers and supply chain partners in Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. He also expects that a new CEO may be more inclined to cooperate with Washington in restricting China's access to GPUs and to reduce support for open-weight models, the latter of which could benefit OpenAI and Anthropic. He is also more cautious about whether NVIDIA can maintain its competitive advantage relative to AMD, Broadcom, and large cloud service providers.

Serenity emphasized that he remains bullish on the AI industry and expects sectors such as optical communications and memory chips to still outperform the market. What he has downgraded is his confidence in NVIDIA's next phase of growth beyond the existing product roadmap, not his judgment on the entire AI industry.