Nvidia Debt Insurance Costs Now Top Meta's as AI Financing Risk Heats Up

October 30 – Frank Curzio, CEO of Curzio Research, said the cost of insuring against a default on Nvidia's debt has risen by more than 200% this year. The cost of buying default insurance on Nvidia's debt now exceeds that of Meta. This is the first time this has happened at least since November 2025. Goldman Sachs clients call it "a crisis without a crisis."

Demand for AI chips remains robust; what is genuinely beginning to run short is lenders willing to extend financing. Goldman Sachs data show that AI-related debt issued since 2026 has already reached $489 billion, far exceeding the bank's earlier forecast of $322 billion. A $5 billion loan for an AI cloud services company had to raise its interest rate in order to attract investor subscriptions, ultimately yielding more than 11%. Nvidia has ample cash.

What the bond market is really pricing is the risk facing those customers whose financing Nvidia helps support. As of the end of June, CoreWeave's debt stood at $51.6 billion, more than its own market capitalization. For borrowers of this kind, if financing costs run as high as 11%, they may ultimately be left as little more than laborers working for the bondholders.

Nvidia was once the biggest winner of the AI financing wave. But that also means that once credit tightens, Nvidia will face the largest exposure. Now, the bond market has sent it the bill.