After CPI Release, Probability of a 50-Basis-Point Fed Rate Hike in December Rises to 15.3%

November 10 — After the release of U.S. October inflation data, according to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in December remains 0%, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 84.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 15.3% (previously 1.1%). By January next year, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 43.9%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 48.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point hike is 7.4%.