Probability of a 50 Basis Point Fed Rate Hike in December Is 11.5%, 25 Basis Point Hike Is 88.5%

November 11: According to Gelonghui, citing CME "FedWatch," the probability that the Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in December is 0%, the probability of a 25 basis point hike is 88.5%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike is 11.5%. By January next year, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 0% (11.8% yesterday), the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 33.6% (66.9% yesterday), the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 59.2% (21.3% yesterday), and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point hike is 7.1% (0% yesterday).