Bitcoin and Ethereum Options With $2.8B in Notional Value Set to Expire This Friday

Nov. 12 — According to data released by Greeks.live analyst Adam, a weekly options expiry worth nearly $2.8 billion is due on Nov. 13, including BTC options with a notional value of $2.48 billion, a max pain price of $76,000 and a Put/Call ratio of 0.52; ETH options have a notional value of $300 million, a max pain price of $2,200 and a Put/Call ratio as high as 1.55.

The report notes that, under the combined weight of negative factors — the fallout from the Binance hack, net outflows from ETFs and U.S. CPI data coming in above expectations — BTC fell below its $76,000 max pain level ahead of the expiry and at one point dropped to the $72,700–$73,300 range. BTC's outstanding open interest is still dominated by call options, but the Put/Call ratio for volume over the past 24 hours has surged to 1.64, signaling rising short-term risk aversion; ETH's spot price has fallen below its $2,200 pain level, with a large number of bearish positions clustered there and a highly defensive price trend. Short-term volatility is currently higher than medium- and long-term volatility, forming a term structure inversion, as the market prices in extremely high realized volatility around the expiry. On trading recommendations, the report suggests watching whether the gravitational zone around max pain can drive a spot recovery, and advises buying out-of-the-money puts on rebounds or building bear spreads as tail-risk protection while the market consolidates and forms a bottom.