JPMorgan Chase's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions include Bitcoin for the first time, with an expected compound annualized return of 10% and volatility of 55%.

A chart shared on October 20 by Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) on X shows that J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s “2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions” (31st edition) has now included Bitcoin in its asset class projections.

According to the report data, Bitcoin’s expected compound return is 10.0%, arithmetic mean return is 20.9%, and annualized volatility is 55.0%. Comparison data for other assets are as follows:

• U.S. Large-Cap Stocks: Compound Return 7.5%, Volatility 18.0%
• U.S. Small-Cap Stocks: Compound Return 7.7%, Volatility 21.0%
• Gold: Compound Return 5.5%, Volatility 17.2%
• U.S. Aggregate Bonds: Compound Return 5.6%, Volatility 4.7%
• U.S. Cash: Compound Return 3.2%, Volatility 0.7%
• U.S. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): Compound Return 8.2%, Volatility 17.3%

In terms of arithmetic mean return, Bitcoin (20.9%) ranks highest among the assets listed in the report, followed by U.S. Small-Cap Stocks (9.66%) and U.S. REITs (9.55%). By compound return, Bitcoin (10.0%) also exceeds all other assets in the table.