Analysts: Bitcoin May Be Forming a Bottom, but Spot Demand Remains Weak

On October 20 that CryptoQuant analyst XWIN Japan stated Bitcoin on-chain data is showing divergence between whales and the spot market. The 60-day net accumulation for major holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC has shifted from -62,600 BTC to +5,230 BTC, indicating that large whales are transitioning from net distribution back to accumulation.

Meanwhile, Binance’s USDT reserves increased from approximately $790 million to $1.76 billion, implying an increase in potential exchange purchasing power. However, US spot demand remains weak, with the Coinbase Premium Index at around -0.1416% and weekly exchange fund flow showing a net inflow of 8,428 BTC. The STH-SOPR stands at approximately 0.9982, indicating that short-term holders are still selling at a slight loss near breakeven levels.

XWIN Japan noted that the market is transitioning from reduced selling pressure toward a potential bottom formation, but sustained upward movement still requires stronger spot demand. Moving forward, key indicators to watch include the Coinbase Premium Index, exchange net flows, and whether the STH-SOPR can remain above 1.