HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Fed Pause Does Not Mean Dovish Pivot, Rate Hike Suspense Left for December

In the early hours of October 29 Beijing Time, the Federal Reserve announced it would maintain the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, aligning with market expectations. The decision passed by a 10-to-2 vote, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack casting dissenting votes in favor of a 25-basis-point rate hike. The statement cited strong economic expansion, noting that inflation remains elevated. Following the announcement, US equities made a slight retracement, while US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index rose moderately. Cloud, Chief Analyst at Huobi HTX, noted that the two dissenting votes clearly signal hawkish sentiment within the committee. With Waller providing no forward guidance and only emphasizing the need to promptly return inflation to the 2% target, the uncertainty surrounding further rate hikes remains entirely open until December.

September CPI reached a five-month high, with approximately 76% of surveyed institutions expecting another rate hike in December. This pause does not signal a dovish pivot, as dollar liquidity constraints remain tight. For crypto assets, every rebound in short-term rates and the US dollar will first weigh down on altcoins before testing Bitcoin's absorption capacity. Before the midterm elections and earnings season conclude, the market remains in a high-volatility window.

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