Bitcoin is about to reach a new high, why don’t I make any money?

Today, Bitcoin exceeded US$68,686, hitting a record high of only US$314; at the same time, NFTs, inscriptions and other assets in the Bitcoin ecosystem also experienced considerable gains.

Bitcoin has risen, but the community does not seem to be very happy, because many people do not have Bitcoin in their hands, but altcoins that do not rise but fall. .

Most people have lost their money

Wall Street funds continue to enter Bitcoin currency, but most retail investors no longer have enough funds to buy Bitcoin.

A few years ago, everyone spent money to participate in the inscription of various ecosystems of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and now they are still eagerly looking forward to the third spring of inscription. As the concept of staking becomes popular, most of the chips in the hands of retail investors are passively locked and deposited in projects such as EigenLayer, Blast, and Merlin. But I have to say that if it weren’t for these lock-up projects, I might not be able to hold Ethereum or Bitcoin.

There are still some people who think that after the Bitcoin spot ETF is priced in, the news is not good, so they sell their chips to ambush the next one. Good news, maybe we all underestimated the power of Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Faced with the crazy rise of Bitcoin since the Spring Festival in February, many people did not even have time to react to Bitcoin’s sudden 10% increase. There are also some people who have been restricted by past bull market experiences and are "afraid of heights" and are waiting for a major correction.

Say this is a bull market, There is no doubt that the price of Bitcoin is the best proof, but this bull market is different from the past. Faced with the unilateral market trend of Bitcoin, the market is divided on whether there will be a bull market for altcoins.

Why is only Bitcoin rising?

On February 29, the single-day trading volume of the Bitcoin spot ETF reached US$7.69 billion, setting a new historical record since its release. In the following days, the overall volume remained at 7.69 billion US dollars. 4 billion-5 billion level. Strong inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs in less than two weeks have pushed Bitcoin prices closer to all-time highs.

As prices continue to rise , many people are looking for the reason, and the clearest answer is the imbalance of supply and demand. Strong demand from Bitcoin spot ETFs exceeds the amount of Bitcoin produced by miners.

Alternative data shows that today’s cryptocurrency panic and The greed index is 90 (yesterday was 82), reaching 90 for the first time since February 2021, and the market has fallen into extreme greed. Market sentiment is hot, but in stark contrast altcoin prices are depressed.

What is worrying is that the price of Bitcoin has been rising, but the price of altcoins has remained motionless or even falling. Many people believe that the funds flowing into the Bitcoin spot ETF will not flow to the altcoins on the market, but will be cashed into US dollars. Therefore, there will be no altcoin bull market in this round.

In an interview with BlockBeats, Matrixport analyst Markus believes that the current market may only be a Bitcoin bull market and does not involve altcoins. But Markus said investors who buy ETFs don’t think so. “This bull market is very different. The last bull market was DeFi summer, and altcoins were the protagonists, but this time it is more or less concentrated on Bitcoin.”

In the last cycle, the cryptocurrency bull market occurred when Bitcoin’s market share was less than 48%, and altcoins rose wildly; but currently Bitcoin’s market share is 50.19%. Markus also mentioned that Bitcoin’s market dominance is around 52% and believes that if altcoins are to rebound, Bitcoin’s dominance must drop below 50%.

It is altcoin season when 75% of the top 50 coins perform better than Bitcoin over a 90-day period. According to BlockchainCenter data, the current altcoin index is 73. The altcoin season has not yet come, but it is relatively close to the 75 standard.

Altcoin seasonal index; Image source: BlockchainCenter

Although there are currently many voices that believe that this round may be a bull market for Bitcoin and that it is rare to encounter a "violent" copycat season, there are still some things worth looking forward to in the ecosystem such as Ethereum and Solana.

Can there still be a copycat season?

Ethereum topped $3,700 despite the SEC delaying a decision on BlackRock’s Ethereum spot ETF application last night. According to 8marketcap data, Ethereum has a market value of $449 billion, surpassing companies such as Mastercard and Exxon Mobil, and ranking 23rd in asset market value.

Ethereum’s largest narrative re-pledge this year has only reached the first half. On February 22, a16z invested US$100 million in the liquidity re-pledge protocol EigenLayer , and leading projects in the re-staking track such as ether.fi and Renzo have also received financing one after another. In terms of infrastructure, in addition to replenishing pledges, modularization is still favored by leading VCs. Founders Fund and Dragonfly led the US$27 million seed round financing of Polygon modular blockchain Avail, and Jump Capital led the investment in modular blockchain Lava Network 1500. US$10,000 in seed round financing.

In previous cycles, the amount of financing in the crypto space has closely followed the price of Bitcoin, but this time there is no relevant trend. According to analysis by crypto researcher Ignas, projects usually raise funds during bear markets and then choose to It makes more sense for them to announce the investment. But the current market is so hot that the "announced amount" is still relatively low. This shows that there will be better opportunities to announce financing news in the future, and therefore is more optimistic about the market outlook.

The price of SOL is here Bitcoin’s performance during the strong market is not bad. In addition to Ethereum, the market is also optimistic about Solana’s subsequent performance.

Firedancer, Solana’s second node validator developed by Jump Crypto, will be launched in 2024, which will help Solana process more transactions at once, with the goal of Reaching one million transactions per second, this may make Solana faster than many traditional payment systems (such as Visa). Projects such as AI and Depin on Solana are also its competitive sectors. Under the catalysis of the points incentive system, a number of Solana ecological projects will be launched and tokens will be issued in the future.

During the writing period, the prices of Ethereum-based tokens such as ENS, OP, and STRK broke through and rose, and optimism further increased. Bitcoin has not yet broken through its previous high, and the future is still worth looking forward to.