Why is ETF daily data worth paying attention to, and what does it have to do with the market?

Original title: "Why are ETF daily data worth paying attention to, and what does it have to do with the market?" 》

Original author: jk, Odaily Planet Daily

Recently, the activity of the Bitcoin  ETF  market has aroused the attention of investors. extensive attention. Numerous products such as BlackRock 's IBIT, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 's GBTC, Fidelity 's FBTC, and Ark Invest/21 Shares 's ARKB , etc., are all on the exchange. Showing complete fluctuation characteristics. As Bitcoin continues to rise and the crypto market enters a bull market, the trading volume data of major Bitcoin ETFs have become a barometer of market sentiment.

Odaily Planet Daily has been continuously tracking the relevant data of Bitcoin spot ETF . It can be seen that as the price of Bitcoin continues to rise recently, a large amount of capital inflows have occurred, and the momentum has completely overshadowed the net outflow of GBTC. At the same time, as buying enthusiasm grows, the Bitcoin holdings of major management companies have also completely increased. James Butterfill, director of research at CoinShares, said that net inflows of digital asset ETFs/ETPs so far this year have exceeded US$12 billion, breaking the historical record of net inflows of US$10.6 billion for the entire year of 2021. However, only one quarter of this year has passed.

At the same time, Bitcoin ETF-related data has reached several new highs:BlackRock Spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) positions Reaching 223,645.98255 BTC (exceeding 1% of the theoretical maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoins), the market value exceeded US$16 billion, setting a new high; on March 12, local time in the United States, the total Bitcoin spot ETF The net inflow was US$1.05 billion, setting a record high for single-day net inflows since the first trading day of the ETF, an increase of approximately 56% compared to the second high (single-day net inflow of US$673 million on February 28)  ; The total market value of Bitcoin ETFs (including spot and futures ETFs) is US$60.143 billion, and the total asset management scale (AUM) is US$55.374 billion.

Data overview

Spot Bitcoin ETF daily trading volume, source: The Block

Chart covers newly approved The total trading volume of Bitcoin spot  ETF for the past month. It can be seen that since the end of February, before Bitcoin rocketed from a price of around $50,000, daily trading volume began to rise, with BlackRock's IBIT being the highest (in the figure (blue part), GBTC ranked second (green part in the picture). It is estimated that most investors profited and sold out, because investors who care about management fees may have left the market when it was first approved. Fidelity's FBTC ranked third.

Spot Bitcoin  ETF Market share, source: The Block

In terms of market share, it is also in line with what we see from the trading volume: from February There was an obvious decline at the beginning, in which VanEck 's HODL proportion gradually increased; but since then, it has resumed its position as first, GBTC second, and FBTC third. Small players such as Ark  followed closely behind, and after the bull market, BlackRock's share of IBIT increased significantly, jumping from about 33% before to today's share. About 45%.

Taken together, the Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a cumulative net inflow of US$11.8288 billion since its launch. Among them:

-IBIT’s cumulative net inflow is US$12.0278 billion;

-FBTC’s cumulative net inflow is US$6.7033 billion;

-BITB’s cumulative net inflow is US$1.4313 billion;

-ARKB has a cumulative net inflow of US$1.9705 billion;

-GBTC has a cumulative net outflow of US$11.4026 billion.

As can be seen from this data, the momentum of net inflows has clearly covered up the net outflows from Grayscale when the ETF was first approved. Only IBIT  The net inflow of one company can already cover the outflow data of GBTC. According to the daily traffic data, it is like this:

Bitcoin Total net inflow data, source: The Block

It can be seen that in the single-day net inflow data in the past month, only a few days were net inflows. outflow state, and the amplitude is small. At other times, the entire market is in a state of net inflows. Basically, few people have raised the issue of whether GBTC will be sold off significantly and affect the price.

According to on-chain analyst Ember’s statistics, the current total holdings of ten BTC spot ETFs has exceeded 800,000 BTC, accounting for 10% of the total BTC. 3.8% . Grayscale (GBTC)’s share of the ten BTC spot ETFs has dropped to less than 50%, and BTC holdings have fallen below 400,000. Grayscale (GBTC) has less and less influence on the market. The BTC holdings of BlackRock (IBIT) and Fidelity (FBTC) have reached 320,000 ($23.1 billion), which is about to surpass Grayscale (GBTC).

Secondly, there are currently two theories in the market regarding the relationship between Bitcoin spot  ETF  and Bitcoin spot prices: What is the  ETF  Did the inflow of funds push up the price of Bitcoin, or did the increase in Bitcoin price due to other reasons drive the inflow of funds into the ETF? The two obviously complement each other, but there is obviously no conclusion yet on this question, which is similar to which came first, the chicken or the egg. From a time point of view, the price of Bitcoin began to rise and the trading volume began to increase on February 26, local time in the United States. The difference is very small, and it is difficult to draw conclusions from the time. However, if the growth rate of ETF data slows down in a bull market, it may mean that the investment enthusiasm of investors attracted by the current bull market has been excessively consumed, or it may indicate a periodic high.

Looking at the current trading volume trend of Bitcoin ETF , from the fluctuations in various data, we can get a glimpse of investor confidence and Subtle changes in market enthusiasm. Although future market performance is full of uncertainty, by closely tracking these key data, investors and analysts can better understand the market context and grasp investment opportunities. The performance of Bitcoin ETF will continue to be the focus of observation by Odaily Planet Daily.

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