More or Empty? See What the Various "Gurus" Have to Say

Original Title: "At the Crossroads of the Market, What are the Basis for Various 'Whale' Traders to be Bullish or Bearish?"

Original Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

With only a few days left until Bitcoin's fourth halving, top "whale traders" have presented starkly different forecasts for the future market direction.

The bull camp generally believes that the darkest moment has passed; the CPI's surprise and the postponement of rate cuts have been unable to stop Bitcoin's upward trend; the main reason for the recent days' correction was that liquidity was temporarily withdrawn due to the tax deadline; while the bear camp believes that unexpected and sustained inflation has put risk assets on the brink of a major correction...

In the following text, we will take stock of the key players on both sides of the bull-bear debate and their main statements, hoping to help everyone make the right moves in the future market.

Bullish Four Heavenly Kings: GCR, Arthur Hayes, Chris Burniske, Matt Hougan

GCR: Hold onto Spot, Do Not Surrender!

After the steep drop in the early morning of April 14th, legendary trader GCR (who previously shorted DOGE, SHIBA, LUNA at the top) publicly turned bullish, despite not having posted any trading comments on social media for a long time. This update has now garnered nearly 9 million views on X and has also received up to 55,000 likes.

GCR stated: "If your position is not sufficient, this will be a good opportunity for you to expand your holdings of tokens with strong consensus. If you have already gone all in, then hold on, stick to your spot position, and do not surrender. Someone once said, the essence of settlement is to forcibly transfer wealth from leveraged traders in need to wealthy spot holders. I have retired from social media, but I do not want to see my brothers still being eliminated in the future under such bright circumstances."

Arthur Hayes: Bottom is In, Charge!

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has long been one of the most influential "whale traders" in the market. Earlier this month, Arthur predicted that from April 15th to May 1st, the U.S. annual tax season (April 15th being the tax deadline) would drain market liquidity. Coupled with the continued Fed balance sheet reduction and the potential overselling from Bitcoin's halving event on April 20th, the market might experience extreme weakness. However, starting from May 1st, with the Fed slowing its balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury deploying funds to stimulate the market, a new round of the crypto bull market is expected to begin.

And with several consecutive days of sharp decline, Arthur also changed his tune and began shouting long.

On April 15, Arthur posted on Platform X, declaring: "The bottom is here, let's go!"

On April 16, Arthur once again stated: "Until this past weekend before the April 15 U.S. tax filing deadline, the price movements of Bitcoin and gold remained in sync. It was also during this weekend that the Israel-Iran situation escalated, leading to a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin while gold happened to be closed for trading. As of this Monday, gold did not show any movement at the open, while Bitcoin once again fell. The overall trend of Bitcoin remains unchanged (still works); people just need to pay their taxes."

Chris Burniske: You actually dare to liquidate before the halving???

Former ARK Invest crypto lead and current Placeholder VC partner Chris Burniske had accurately predicted a significant market pullback after the approval of ETFs.

After this round of decline, Burniske also spoke out multiple times calling for a long position.

Early today, Burniske posted: "There is significant market panic, yet the price has stabilized within a reasonable range, excessive volatility has been eliminated, which will be the foundation for the eventual price increase."

Subsequently, Burniske also retweeted a post about "You guys actually liquidated four days before the halving" accompanied by an image of a whale swallowing, possibly indicating that whales are buying up panic-sold chips from retail investors at low prices.

Matt Hougan: Mere interest rates, nothing to worry about!

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan (the person on the left in the image below) has always been an active representative of the Bitcoin "bullish to the death" camp on social media.

During last week's Bitcoin drop due to higher-than-expected CPI and delayed rate cut expectations, Hougan stated, "I don't think higher-than-expected CPI will disrupt Bitcoin's upward trend. Whether the Fed cuts rates in June is not a long-term price driver for Bitcoin, just a marginal factor. ETF flows and the growing deficit issue are more important, and all this data is positive for Bitcoin."

Short Squeeze Advocate: 10x Research

Compared to the long side, there are relatively fewer well-known figures on the short side who can command widespread attention. Originally expected to be the representative figure for the bearish view in April, Arthur, who has now turned bullish, the short side urgently needs a new standard bearer.

This morning, a prominent institution, 10x Research, which was advocating for a target of $80,000 just last week, suddenly announced that it had "completely closed its positions last night", sparking widespread discussions on social media.

Explaining the rationale behind the closing of positions, 10x Research stated that:

1. What concerns us more and more is that risk assets (stocks and cryptocurrencies) are both at a critical point and may experience a significant price pullback. The main trigger is unexpected sustained inflation. Current bond market forecasts indicate that the number of interest rate cuts will be fewer than three, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has exceeded 4.50%. We may have reached a crucial turning point for risk assets.

2. It must be understood that trading is a continuous and opportunistic game. The key to trading is to continually analyze the market and identify opportunities at favorable times. Sometimes we advocate for a strategy of increasing risk (to seek higher returns), while at other times, preserving capital is the top priority. This allows you to seize opportunities at a lower risk level.

3. ... (Indeed, 10x Research's report does have a third point, but to read the third point and the complete content, the minimum membership fee required is $340 per year. I choose to use this $340 to buy the dip.)

Risk Disclaimer

It is important to emphasize that the above content is only a summary of the market forecasts of some KOLs who are currently receiving high market attention. The forecasts and reasons of the major KOLs in the article are personal opinions and do not represent the views of Odaily.

Investment carries extremely high risk. Please do not blindly follow others' investment advice, and be sure to DYOR before making any transactions.

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